<![CDATA[Dynamic Trend Profile - All Forums]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/ Sat, 04 Feb 2012 20:23:17 +0000 MyBB <![CDATA[December 2011]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=665 Wed, 14 Dec 2011 19:07:57 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=665 Market Update (Wed, 14 Dec 2012; 2:10PM NYT) --

Late August I became convinced the US stock market had entered a highly unpredictable, complex, wide-swingly range phase where it was going to be very hard predict or anticipate every single future swing move. I have not posted or traded anything since October because I needed more time and information to better figure things out.

My analysis continues to suggest things may not be as rosy domestically or overseas as we are led to believe. I felt it was time to trust my convictions and test the trading waters once again. When the 'Santa' rally failed to take out the Oct/Nov highs last week, I established my first Short position in a several months. My plan is to trail a tight stop and cut-and-run by next Wednesday, Dec 21, if we do not take out the November lows. I believe this was the right thing to attempt at this time even though I thought I would not be attempting a Short until January or February, 2012.

If we do not take out the November lows later this month, it is very possible we could still be surprised with a decent rally in early January 2012, particularly if we continue to hold at the lows established since August.

~ marc]]> Market Update (Wed, 14 Dec 2012; 2:10PM NYT) --

Late August I became convinced the US stock market had entered a highly unpredictable, complex, wide-swingly range phase where it was going to be very hard predict or anticipate every single future swing move. I have not posted or traded anything since October because I needed more time and information to better figure things out.

My analysis continues to suggest things may not be as rosy domestically or overseas as we are led to believe. I felt it was time to trust my convictions and test the trading waters once again. When the 'Santa' rally failed to take out the Oct/Nov highs last week, I established my first Short position in a several months. My plan is to trail a tight stop and cut-and-run by next Wednesday, Dec 21, if we do not take out the November lows. I believe this was the right thing to attempt at this time even though I thought I would not be attempting a Short until January or February, 2012.

If we do not take out the November lows later this month, it is very possible we could still be surprised with a decent rally in early January 2012, particularly if we continue to hold at the lows established since August.

~ marc]]> <![CDATA[October 2011]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=664 Wed, 12 Oct 2011 20:03:57 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=664 Wednesday, 12 October 2011 --

I am posting this update because I think a major selloff continuation has been averted. October may not be as bad as anticipated. November and December could end up decent months too. I still have my doubts about the 1st quarter of 2012.

The past two weeks things are starting to really improve and market psychology in US and Europe continues to improve.

Quote:Originally posted by MR; Friday, 9 Sept 2011 -- ....For Monday morning watch to see if the DAX index can hold hold 5000-4900. Watch your European market trading a little closer next week. It is making me a little nervous right now. I predicted early August I felt August, September and October this year would be hard months to trade if you were bullish... and, so far, that is turning out to clearly be the case.

The US indicies held recent lows and suddenly reversed back up, and the German DAX index held a key 5,000 level and now continues to push higher out of its recent trading range. In some ways it appears a "feel good about your investments" psychology is about to quickly return to pre-August bullish tendencies.

What has changed fundamentally that merits such dramatic changes in attitudes every two or three months? Maybe recent changes have been the perception that Europe is about to get its house in order and avert a financial crisis? Maybe it is anticipation we will have a good USA earning season?

Perception and realility are not the same things. All these changes will do is change perception 'for a season' until the fundamental morose issues that worry any human being who has any common sense resurfaces again weeks or months from now.

Don't get me wrong, I am not complaining things are finally improving. I am ELATED to see stocks rebounding again! I have seen some very good friends who lost some serious money the past two months who need to get their money back!

All I am saying is... enjoy it while you can. ... just don't get suckered into believing everything is alright.

I have been an aggressive bull for two years. I am still bullish, just more trading in a conservative mode for the near-term. For example, I am not participating in this recent rally, and I am not upset about it. I will only trade if I can get the very lowest-risk entries, long or short. Other than that I am content right now as a trader watching from the sidelines until I can better figure things out.

I think our US market could even test the previous highs before the end of the year. Does it have what it takes to keep going this time if it does? For the past two years it did. I am not so sure this time it is a guarantee.

I really do think something has changed this time. I just cannot quite put my hand on what it might be.

.png  dax_oct12.png (Size: 209.35 KB / Downloads: 0) ]]> Wednesday, 12 October 2011 --

I am posting this update because I think a major selloff continuation has been averted. October may not be as bad as anticipated. November and December could end up decent months too. I still have my doubts about the 1st quarter of 2012.

The past two weeks things are starting to really improve and market psychology in US and Europe continues to improve.

Quote:Originally posted by MR; Friday, 9 Sept 2011 -- ....For Monday morning watch to see if the DAX index can hold hold 5000-4900. Watch your European market trading a little closer next week. It is making me a little nervous right now. I predicted early August I felt August, September and October this year would be hard months to trade if you were bullish... and, so far, that is turning out to clearly be the case.

The US indicies held recent lows and suddenly reversed back up, and the German DAX index held a key 5,000 level and now continues to push higher out of its recent trading range. In some ways it appears a "feel good about your investments" psychology is about to quickly return to pre-August bullish tendencies.

What has changed fundamentally that merits such dramatic changes in attitudes every two or three months? Maybe recent changes have been the perception that Europe is about to get its house in order and avert a financial crisis? Maybe it is anticipation we will have a good USA earning season?

Perception and realility are not the same things. All these changes will do is change perception 'for a season' until the fundamental morose issues that worry any human being who has any common sense resurfaces again weeks or months from now.

Don't get me wrong, I am not complaining things are finally improving. I am ELATED to see stocks rebounding again! I have seen some very good friends who lost some serious money the past two months who need to get their money back!

All I am saying is... enjoy it while you can. ... just don't get suckered into believing everything is alright.

I have been an aggressive bull for two years. I am still bullish, just more trading in a conservative mode for the near-term. For example, I am not participating in this recent rally, and I am not upset about it. I will only trade if I can get the very lowest-risk entries, long or short. Other than that I am content right now as a trader watching from the sidelines until I can better figure things out.

I think our US market could even test the previous highs before the end of the year. Does it have what it takes to keep going this time if it does? For the past two years it did. I am not so sure this time it is a guarantee.

I really do think something has changed this time. I just cannot quite put my hand on what it might be.

.png  dax_oct12.png (Size: 209.35 KB / Downloads: 0) ]]> <![CDATA[September 2011]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=663 Fri, 09 Sep 2011 21:54:47 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=663 Friday, 9 Sept 2011 -- I covered small positions mentioned in last post of August thread... for a profit in GMCR and larger gain in AAPL. For Monday morning watch to see if the DAX index can hold hold 5000-4900. Watch your European market trading a little closer next week. It is making me a little nervous right now. I predicted early August I felt August, September and October this year would be hard months to trade if you were bullish... and, so far, that is turning out to clearly be the case.]]> Friday, 9 Sept 2011 -- I covered small positions mentioned in last post of August thread... for a profit in GMCR and larger gain in AAPL. For Monday morning watch to see if the DAX index can hold hold 5000-4900. Watch your European market trading a little closer next week. It is making me a little nervous right now. I predicted early August I felt August, September and October this year would be hard months to trade if you were bullish... and, so far, that is turning out to clearly be the case.]]> <![CDATA[August 2011]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=662 Tue, 02 Aug 2011 15:39:24 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=662 Tuesday, 2 August 2011 -- I have been on vacation so lately not updating market observations. After a couple days trying to get caught up I concluded will continue to stand on the sidelines with only one position and wait for the market to do reveal something meaningful. I have some ideas what to watch for but I need the market to review which idea will play out. Under the current best scenario even aggressive traders have to be uncomfortable stepping to the plate with any brand new trading ideas. The best I can figure is day-trading "churning" could be the best play for the next day or two... but by late Thursday or Friday we can have a better chance of finding a couple new buys if we are bullish. If you are bearish I do not yet this morning see any evidence you are willing to move out of some of your current trades.]]> Tuesday, 2 August 2011 -- I have been on vacation so lately not updating market observations. After a couple days trying to get caught up I concluded will continue to stand on the sidelines with only one position and wait for the market to do reveal something meaningful. I have some ideas what to watch for but I need the market to review which idea will play out. Under the current best scenario even aggressive traders have to be uncomfortable stepping to the plate with any brand new trading ideas. The best I can figure is day-trading "churning" could be the best play for the next day or two... but by late Thursday or Friday we can have a better chance of finding a couple new buys if we are bullish. If you are bearish I do not yet this morning see any evidence you are willing to move out of some of your current trades.]]> <![CDATA[July 2011]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=661 Fri, 01 Jul 2011 21:19:16 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=661 Friday, 01 July 2011 --

Welcome to a new month and quarter, and July 4th Independence Day holiday weekend!!!

The past week U.S. stocks benchmark indexes soared approximately 5% for five straight days. The Dow Industrial Average finished up 648 points!

I have been saying for a long time, in previous posts, I felt this long complex correction that began in May was only a "major Wave 4" correction of some sort that would eventually bottom and lead to another rally. I have been predicting somewhere around July their should be a rebound. While we might be a little ahead of things now, I still think we have not experienced the end of this rally.

It has been a good week for bulls.... now... go have fun with your families and friends!!! Forget your worries, reflect on the freedoms you and opportunities you enjoy as USA citizens. Enjoy this gorgeous weather... looking forward to having more summer rally to come!]]> Friday, 01 July 2011 --

Welcome to a new month and quarter, and July 4th Independence Day holiday weekend!!!

The past week U.S. stocks benchmark indexes soared approximately 5% for five straight days. The Dow Industrial Average finished up 648 points!

I have been saying for a long time, in previous posts, I felt this long complex correction that began in May was only a "major Wave 4" correction of some sort that would eventually bottom and lead to another rally. I have been predicting somewhere around July their should be a rebound. While we might be a little ahead of things now, I still think we have not experienced the end of this rally.

It has been a good week for bulls.... now... go have fun with your families and friends!!! Forget your worries, reflect on the freedoms you and opportunities you enjoy as USA citizens. Enjoy this gorgeous weather... looking forward to having more summer rally to come!]]> <![CDATA[June 2011]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=660 Mon, 06 Jun 2011 22:16:14 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=660 Monday, 6 June 2011 --

Last month I said, if you are bullish, I did not think anything of great significance was going to happen. What that meant was, if I were wanting to buy something I felt you should wait to buy things at cheaper prices.

We are on day 4 of June trading. The market has gotten cheaper since my last post in May. The impression that the US stock market is still be in a correction phase is still there. However, I am more interested now in watching closer for any lower risk, higher quality short-term buy setups that could be developing.

I think the odds favor, by mid-June, the risk-verses-reward buy setups will start to be more attractive.

Even if the current prolonged corrective phase were to continue in the summer months I still think, at a minimum, a nice decent rally should occur before the July 4th holiday weekend. I have confidence the current pullback that started in May has not had enough time to develop into the major market top some might be anticipating... if you think this is a market top.

(05-16-2011 01:54 PM)Marc Rinehart Wrote:  Monday, 16 May 2011 -- I don't expect anything significantly bullish to happen the rest of this month. The markets should continue to drift sideways or experience more sector/group rotation "profit-taking" until traders start to "position square" before Memorial Day weekend. It is a good time to sit tight and wait for better buys to show up later.
]]> Monday, 6 June 2011 --

Last month I said, if you are bullish, I did not think anything of great significance was going to happen. What that meant was, if I were wanting to buy something I felt you should wait to buy things at cheaper prices.

We are on day 4 of June trading. The market has gotten cheaper since my last post in May. The impression that the US stock market is still be in a correction phase is still there. However, I am more interested now in watching closer for any lower risk, higher quality short-term buy setups that could be developing.

I think the odds favor, by mid-June, the risk-verses-reward buy setups will start to be more attractive.

Even if the current prolonged corrective phase were to continue in the summer months I still think, at a minimum, a nice decent rally should occur before the July 4th holiday weekend. I have confidence the current pullback that started in May has not had enough time to develop into the major market top some might be anticipating... if you think this is a market top.

(05-16-2011 01:54 PM)Marc Rinehart Wrote:  Monday, 16 May 2011 -- I don't expect anything significantly bullish to happen the rest of this month. The markets should continue to drift sideways or experience more sector/group rotation "profit-taking" until traders start to "position square" before Memorial Day weekend. It is a good time to sit tight and wait for better buys to show up later.
]]> <![CDATA[May 2011]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=658 Thu, 05 May 2011 17:50:14 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=658 Thursday, 5 May 2011 -- We did make a newer recent high in the Crude Oil futures market last week, as I predicted would happen in end of April or early May, but this week we are retracing. Today's big sell off in NY energy futures is not a bad thing. Even though I predicted higher energy prices this summer, I still think this sell off is healthy. It means sustainable higher energy prices are still a reality but the prices may not get totally out of hand like they did back in 2008. That energy rally helped push the stock market crash later that year. I still believe there exists overall net long biases in the energy sector, but now any further price advances in the near-term may not lead to another massive downtrend showing up later this year or early next. If the exchanges continue to demand higher margins it might cut down in unreasonable speculation but now return things to a more healthier behavior that is more in line with legitimate supply and demand relationships.

Bottom-line: I personally like today's severe reversals and rotations going on. It will help us continue to grow the economy and create risk/reward setups that make more sense and are safer to trade. Maybe now we can start planning to take a summer vacation again without worrying about gasoline prices growing outrageously high and unpredictable. Our country and the world needs more economic stability if we want to less problems in the near-future. Today is not a bad day... It shows me that the powers-to-be are not going to let things get to out of hand and jeopardize this recovery.
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Last month I posted these comments....

(04-12-2011 02:28 PM)Marc Rinehart Wrote:  Tuesday, 12 April, 2011 -- In our live class today attendees were interested in focusing on what the Dynamic Trend Profile had to say after a two-day energy market selloff.

Basically, after reviewing this session NY Crude and Unleaded Gas contracts, several energy stocks and the USO ETF, the conclusion was/is... NY Crude Oil may be heading down short to near-term to $100- 98 or, if really lucky, to the $95 to 90 area; longer-term, the energy market still is Bullish.

I do not have any energy positions so emotionally I can be more objective right now. All I know is the lower things go now, the more attractive price support will become to Bulls later this month or in May. I will predict the US energy markets will rally back up before Memorial Day weekend to new highs.
]]> Thursday, 5 May 2011 -- We did make a newer recent high in the Crude Oil futures market last week, as I predicted would happen in end of April or early May, but this week we are retracing. Today's big sell off in NY energy futures is not a bad thing. Even though I predicted higher energy prices this summer, I still think this sell off is healthy. It means sustainable higher energy prices are still a reality but the prices may not get totally out of hand like they did back in 2008. That energy rally helped push the stock market crash later that year. I still believe there exists overall net long biases in the energy sector, but now any further price advances in the near-term may not lead to another massive downtrend showing up later this year or early next. If the exchanges continue to demand higher margins it might cut down in unreasonable speculation but now return things to a more healthier behavior that is more in line with legitimate supply and demand relationships.

Bottom-line: I personally like today's severe reversals and rotations going on. It will help us continue to grow the economy and create risk/reward setups that make more sense and are safer to trade. Maybe now we can start planning to take a summer vacation again without worrying about gasoline prices growing outrageously high and unpredictable. Our country and the world needs more economic stability if we want to less problems in the near-future. Today is not a bad day... It shows me that the powers-to-be are not going to let things get to out of hand and jeopardize this recovery.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Last month I posted these comments....

(04-12-2011 02:28 PM)Marc Rinehart Wrote:  Tuesday, 12 April, 2011 -- In our live class today attendees were interested in focusing on what the Dynamic Trend Profile had to say after a two-day energy market selloff.

Basically, after reviewing this session NY Crude and Unleaded Gas contracts, several energy stocks and the USO ETF, the conclusion was/is... NY Crude Oil may be heading down short to near-term to $100- 98 or, if really lucky, to the $95 to 90 area; longer-term, the energy market still is Bullish.

I do not have any energy positions so emotionally I can be more objective right now. All I know is the lower things go now, the more attractive price support will become to Bulls later this month or in May. I will predict the US energy markets will rally back up before Memorial Day weekend to new highs.
]]> <![CDATA[April 2011]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=657 Mon, 11 Apr 2011 16:18:08 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=657 Monday, 11 April 2011 -- Are You Ready For Earnings Season? Earning season starts tonight with Alcoa (AA) kicking things off. JP Morgan (JPM) releases earnings before open Wednesday, April 13th. Thursday, after close, Google (GOOG) reports.... The way the market has been acting this morning wondering what kind of hedging is going on ahead of earnings?]]> Monday, 11 April 2011 -- Are You Ready For Earnings Season? Earning season starts tonight with Alcoa (AA) kicking things off. JP Morgan (JPM) releases earnings before open Wednesday, April 13th. Thursday, after close, Google (GOOG) reports.... The way the market has been acting this morning wondering what kind of hedging is going on ahead of earnings?]]> <![CDATA[March 2011]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=656 Thu, 03 Mar 2011 17:31:51 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=656 Thursday, 3 March 2011 -- We are now in our 3rd day of trading for March and I still do not know what to expect for this month. Here's what I am seeing and will predict will occur:
(1) The demand for Energy futures contracts will continue into the Spring months and traders will continue to buy the dips and pullbacks.
(2) NY Unleaded Gas prices will hit new highs this year.
(3) Precious metal prices will maintain overall upward bias near-term.
(4) A form of stagflation will start to show up more during the next few months and you will start to hear debates how to deal with it without pushing the economy back into a severe recession again.

I think the bulls still are holding their own but I might start to monitor more for ideas how to adjust trading strategy to reflect what I think is the beginning of the early stages of higher risks coming back into the markets this Spring. It typically takes a while for these things to be seen by the majority of traders so I think it is still safe to trade aggressively bullish trends... but, as a contrarian, I will be starting to build more temperance and cautions in my thinking over the next several weeks if what I think might start showing up actually does.

For now, March is still being nice to the bulls, in general.

(PS: TIP OF THE MONTH) -- Canadian stocks are a great place to be right now. Pretty decent uptrends still showing more potentials.]]> Thursday, 3 March 2011 -- We are now in our 3rd day of trading for March and I still do not know what to expect for this month. Here's what I am seeing and will predict will occur:
(1) The demand for Energy futures contracts will continue into the Spring months and traders will continue to buy the dips and pullbacks.
(2) NY Unleaded Gas prices will hit new highs this year.
(3) Precious metal prices will maintain overall upward bias near-term.
(4) A form of stagflation will start to show up more during the next few months and you will start to hear debates how to deal with it without pushing the economy back into a severe recession again.

I think the bulls still are holding their own but I might start to monitor more for ideas how to adjust trading strategy to reflect what I think is the beginning of the early stages of higher risks coming back into the markets this Spring. It typically takes a while for these things to be seen by the majority of traders so I think it is still safe to trade aggressively bullish trends... but, as a contrarian, I will be starting to build more temperance and cautions in my thinking over the next several weeks if what I think might start showing up actually does.

For now, March is still being nice to the bulls, in general.

(PS: TIP OF THE MONTH) -- Canadian stocks are a great place to be right now. Pretty decent uptrends still showing more potentials.]]> <![CDATA[February 2011]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=655 Mon, 07 Feb 2011 16:37:50 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=655 Monday, 7 Feb 2011 -- We are now in our 2nd month for 2011 and, overall, things continue to charge ahead. We would still define the current overall US market action as bullish, Long or Net Long, in its tendencies. That means there are more bulls willing to buy pullbacks than bears willing to sell short right now. The current DIA, SPY, QQQQ resistances are not as obvious as the stronger nearby lower supports area. Basically, this means: "the trend [up] is still your [best] friend."]]> Monday, 7 Feb 2011 -- We are now in our 2nd month for 2011 and, overall, things continue to charge ahead. We would still define the current overall US market action as bullish, Long or Net Long, in its tendencies. That means there are more bulls willing to buy pullbacks than bears willing to sell short right now. The current DIA, SPY, QQQQ resistances are not as obvious as the stronger nearby lower supports area. Basically, this means: "the trend [up] is still your [best] friend."]]> <![CDATA[January 2011]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=654 Tue, 04 Jan 2011 14:43:49 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=654
Happy New Year everyone! It is a little early to know what to expect this year in the near future but let me share this email response what I sent to a friend who asked me my guess on the market after yesterday's first trading day in 2011....
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As for the markets, still not fully committal on things going into the first trading day in 2011. Am still "scenario building" possibilities for 1st quarter, 2011.

It still "feels" like controlled bullishness going on right now but, technically, we are contained at a wide resistance range? Kind of an uncomfortable position to be in if you are buying new highs now?

The biggest concern I have right now as a longer-term investor is what to do if energy prices move too high too quickly this winter and spring. I hope and pray the big boys who establish large positions in the NY energy pits do not over expose themselves or push things too high this year because of their greed. The economy is still fragile and cannot take for long high energy prices. I don't see that as a problem during the first quarter, however, mostly just the becoming a problem by Q2.

For tomorrow (Tue, 4 Jan) and later this week, watch to see if we can get above 11,834 on DJ Industrial. Such a move this week could be insightful. Any breakdown of 11,466 to 11,400 area this month could trigger short-term Short hedge strategies. 10,735 area, is key near-term support.

If we close above 11,825 by the end of this week it will be easier to extend gains in January.

I will try and figure things out better. For now, this is just my very best "quick look" idea what to watch for now. If the market trades down the next two days today's nice first day of trading was just a game playing effort to suck in more new money. If we keep getting more buy days, the bull is poised to extend itself this month.

Hope this helps! I am still holding Long that one trade from December.]]>
Happy New Year everyone! It is a little early to know what to expect this year in the near future but let me share this email response what I sent to a friend who asked me my guess on the market after yesterday's first trading day in 2011....
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As for the markets, still not fully committal on things going into the first trading day in 2011. Am still "scenario building" possibilities for 1st quarter, 2011.

It still "feels" like controlled bullishness going on right now but, technically, we are contained at a wide resistance range? Kind of an uncomfortable position to be in if you are buying new highs now?

The biggest concern I have right now as a longer-term investor is what to do if energy prices move too high too quickly this winter and spring. I hope and pray the big boys who establish large positions in the NY energy pits do not over expose themselves or push things too high this year because of their greed. The economy is still fragile and cannot take for long high energy prices. I don't see that as a problem during the first quarter, however, mostly just the becoming a problem by Q2.

For tomorrow (Tue, 4 Jan) and later this week, watch to see if we can get above 11,834 on DJ Industrial. Such a move this week could be insightful. Any breakdown of 11,466 to 11,400 area this month could trigger short-term Short hedge strategies. 10,735 area, is key near-term support.

If we close above 11,825 by the end of this week it will be easier to extend gains in January.

I will try and figure things out better. For now, this is just my very best "quick look" idea what to watch for now. If the market trades down the next two days today's nice first day of trading was just a game playing effort to suck in more new money. If we keep getting more buy days, the bull is poised to extend itself this month.

Hope this helps! I am still holding Long that one trade from December.]]> <![CDATA[December 2010]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=653 Thu, 02 Dec 2010 21:24:59 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=653 Thursday, 2 December 2010-- Yesterday and today's positive action could be interpreted two ways:

(1) The Bulls are still in charge. The December 2010 US stock market "Santa Claus rally" has begun after a healthy November pullback.

(2) The overall US stock market should continue to improve during December; however, if newer highs are not maintained going into Christmas, start doubting further gains will continue into early 2011.

So far there are encouraging signs to technically justify staying bullish near to longer-term. Monitor to see how the Dow acts if it ever tests 11,600 to 11,750 resistance. Keep an eye on the Korean peninsula conflict. If it escalates that could be a problem.

My gut feeling is the market should maintain a positive net Long bias now with last weeks lows more capable of holding in December. I strongly suspect-- all things being equal-- if there is a meaningful pullback it would occur in January or February of 2011.

Good luck trading this month!]]> Thursday, 2 December 2010-- Yesterday and today's positive action could be interpreted two ways:

(1) The Bulls are still in charge. The December 2010 US stock market "Santa Claus rally" has begun after a healthy November pullback.

(2) The overall US stock market should continue to improve during December; however, if newer highs are not maintained going into Christmas, start doubting further gains will continue into early 2011.

So far there are encouraging signs to technically justify staying bullish near to longer-term. Monitor to see how the Dow acts if it ever tests 11,600 to 11,750 resistance. Keep an eye on the Korean peninsula conflict. If it escalates that could be a problem.

My gut feeling is the market should maintain a positive net Long bias now with last weeks lows more capable of holding in December. I strongly suspect-- all things being equal-- if there is a meaningful pullback it would occur in January or February of 2011.

Good luck trading this month!]]> <![CDATA[November 2010]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=652 Mon, 08 Nov 2010 23:05:54 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=652 November 2010 -- This month we see a continuation of the previous two months positive gains. After breaking above the late spring highs, the main US indices continue to hold above the earlier this spring highs. Things are kind of quiet during this phase of the earning season. Today-- Monday, 8 Nov-- in the Group Rotation we are witnessing continual buying (blue color) money flowing back in many of the recently weakening groups, such as Banking, Broadline Retailers, Fixed Income, Heavy Construction, Industrial Suppliers, Iron & Steel, Medical Equipment, Multi Utilities, Real Estate holdings, Transportation Services, Water. This suggests that, even though the market is pausing somewhat, the Bulls still appear nearby ready to buy something at the right time and price. Based on this impression, we have to be still anticipating the Bull market that returned the first week in September still has some leg left to it.


.png  gr100810.png (Size: 70.66 KB / Downloads: 0) ]]> November 2010 -- This month we see a continuation of the previous two months positive gains. After breaking above the late spring highs, the main US indices continue to hold above the earlier this spring highs. Things are kind of quiet during this phase of the earning season. Today-- Monday, 8 Nov-- in the Group Rotation we are witnessing continual buying (blue color) money flowing back in many of the recently weakening groups, such as Banking, Broadline Retailers, Fixed Income, Heavy Construction, Industrial Suppliers, Iron & Steel, Medical Equipment, Multi Utilities, Real Estate holdings, Transportation Services, Water. This suggests that, even though the market is pausing somewhat, the Bulls still appear nearby ready to buy something at the right time and price. Based on this impression, we have to be still anticipating the Bull market that returned the first week in September still has some leg left to it.


.png  gr100810.png (Size: 70.66 KB / Downloads: 0) ]]> <![CDATA[October 2010]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=651 Wed, 13 Oct 2010 18:02:29 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=651 Wednesday, 13 Oct 2010, 10:15AM Market Update-- Well, we recently finally hit Dow 11,000. Now what?

Observations and analysis suggests the US stock market still appears to have overall near-term bullish tendencies. Any kind of a pullback this week, even a shallow dip, should still attract Bulls interested in buying any quality buy setups for short-term momentum trades, even at this stage of the rally.

Many of the stocks reporting earnings first are currently pretty decent companies. We don't anticipate many of the first companies reporting earnings will disappoint this time.

The market may very well continue to surprise people two months in a row.

Bottom-Line: Even under the worst case scenario, I would still be interested in buying a quality this fall on any pullback.

.png  indu_oct13_2010.png (Size: 75.94 KB / Downloads: 0) ]]> Wednesday, 13 Oct 2010, 10:15AM Market Update-- Well, we recently finally hit Dow 11,000. Now what?

Observations and analysis suggests the US stock market still appears to have overall near-term bullish tendencies. Any kind of a pullback this week, even a shallow dip, should still attract Bulls interested in buying any quality buy setups for short-term momentum trades, even at this stage of the rally.

Many of the stocks reporting earnings first are currently pretty decent companies. We don't anticipate many of the first companies reporting earnings will disappoint this time.

The market may very well continue to surprise people two months in a row.

Bottom-Line: Even under the worst case scenario, I would still be interested in buying a quality this fall on any pullback.

.png  indu_oct13_2010.png (Size: 75.94 KB / Downloads: 0) ]]> <![CDATA[September 2010]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=649 Wed, 01 Sep 2010 15:11:42 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=649 Wed, 1 Sept 2010, 11AM UPDATE -- Just a very quick follow-through update.... Is the first trading say of Sept. DJ Industrial is up +246. Very encouraging for discouraged market. 'Ideal' support holding. A 'mini' technical breakout occurred this morning. Means Bears more cautious, Bulls more interested. Staying above Dow 10,000 continues to be the key. Odds now favor more buying than selling in the near future.


.png  INDUd_1Sept2010.png (Size: 24.38 KB / Downloads: 66)

(08-27-2010 06:08 PM)Marc Rinehart Wrote:  The US Stock market has been in a corrective phase for 14 days. Today it finished the week with a very positive bounce. Is this the beginning of the end of this corrective phase?

There is a good possibility that this corrective pullback phase could be winding down and more Bulls might be preparing next week to buy into the next dip before the Labor Day weekend. For that to happen we will watch to see DJ Industrial Average can hold 9941.70, 9887.32, 9832.93 on any mild pullbacks next week before Labor Day weekend. If this happens odds will improve supports can hold and more bullish tendencies will show up into early September trading action.

Critical bigger picture support calculations for the DJ Industrial Average come in around 9894, 9859. If for some reason we break below 9800 any time in September, then the next absolute support below that comes in around 9655-9615 area. For longer-term Bulls to win this battle now those areas must show they can hold.

(Friday, 27 Aug 2010, 5:40PM NYT)
]]> Wed, 1 Sept 2010, 11AM UPDATE -- Just a very quick follow-through update.... Is the first trading say of Sept. DJ Industrial is up +246. Very encouraging for discouraged market. 'Ideal' support holding. A 'mini' technical breakout occurred this morning. Means Bears more cautious, Bulls more interested. Staying above Dow 10,000 continues to be the key. Odds now favor more buying than selling in the near future.


.png  INDUd_1Sept2010.png (Size: 24.38 KB / Downloads: 66)

(08-27-2010 06:08 PM)Marc Rinehart Wrote:  The US Stock market has been in a corrective phase for 14 days. Today it finished the week with a very positive bounce. Is this the beginning of the end of this corrective phase?

There is a good possibility that this corrective pullback phase could be winding down and more Bulls might be preparing next week to buy into the next dip before the Labor Day weekend. For that to happen we will watch to see DJ Industrial Average can hold 9941.70, 9887.32, 9832.93 on any mild pullbacks next week before Labor Day weekend. If this happens odds will improve supports can hold and more bullish tendencies will show up into early September trading action.

Critical bigger picture support calculations for the DJ Industrial Average come in around 9894, 9859. If for some reason we break below 9800 any time in September, then the next absolute support below that comes in around 9655-9615 area. For longer-term Bulls to win this battle now those areas must show they can hold.

(Friday, 27 Aug 2010, 5:40PM NYT)
]]> <![CDATA[August 2010]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=648 Mon, 02 Aug 2010 17:08:25 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=648 Monday, 2 August 2010 -- Few things noticing this morning:

(1) The market is starting off August with a nice gap higher up tick move. Bears will attempt to re-take control later at higher prices rather than rush out now and waste money trying. Bulls will be more willing to buy pullbacks. Bulls still maintaining control into early August.

(2) Energy prices will stay high into August. Sovereign funds will try to push things higher to test April/May previous highs.... NY Crude Oil, for example, made a mini-breakout move this morning on daily perpetual file. Suggests lower trading range can be raised to 75 area where bulls will be more active buying the dips. Moves higher to upper 88-92- range still possible in August.

(3) US Dollar down again but moving closer to that support range predicted it would drop to around 80-79/78. Would like to see that area hold for a while.]]> Monday, 2 August 2010 -- Few things noticing this morning:

(1) The market is starting off August with a nice gap higher up tick move. Bears will attempt to re-take control later at higher prices rather than rush out now and waste money trying. Bulls will be more willing to buy pullbacks. Bulls still maintaining control into early August.

(2) Energy prices will stay high into August. Sovereign funds will try to push things higher to test April/May previous highs.... NY Crude Oil, for example, made a mini-breakout move this morning on daily perpetual file. Suggests lower trading range can be raised to 75 area where bulls will be more active buying the dips. Moves higher to upper 88-92- range still possible in August.

(3) US Dollar down again but moving closer to that support range predicted it would drop to around 80-79/78. Would like to see that area hold for a while.]]> <![CDATA[July 2010]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=646 Wed, 07 Jul 2010 15:27:27 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=646 Wed, 7 July 2010 -- The market is starting to act a little bit better after a two week decline. It is encouraging but too early to tell with great certainty if it can work back up into at least a trading range for this month. My guess is the DJ Industrial is still trying to stay close to 10,000 for the near-term and might even push up to 10,100 shortly?]]> Wed, 7 July 2010 -- The market is starting to act a little bit better after a two week decline. It is encouraging but too early to tell with great certainty if it can work back up into at least a trading range for this month. My guess is the DJ Industrial is still trying to stay close to 10,000 for the near-term and might even push up to 10,100 shortly?]]> <![CDATA[June 2010]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=645 Tue, 01 Jun 2010 19:20:19 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=645 Tuesday, 1 June 2010 -- We were hoping to see some positive things occur after the Memorial Day weekend holiday. This year we are not starting out June as we would have liked. For example, many of the energy stocks continue to look weak. Stocks, like SHLD, which performed well in the first quarter, also, continue to look weak. Is this a precursor that more 'profit-taking' will continue into June? Right now continues to have a cloudy picture what is really going. The market continues to struggle with showing that it has any real major rally potential yet. By the end of this week we should have a better handle on figuring things out better.... As for now it looks like I might have been a little premature trying to buy those couple Calls last week.]]> Tuesday, 1 June 2010 -- We were hoping to see some positive things occur after the Memorial Day weekend holiday. This year we are not starting out June as we would have liked. For example, many of the energy stocks continue to look weak. Stocks, like SHLD, which performed well in the first quarter, also, continue to look weak. Is this a precursor that more 'profit-taking' will continue into June? Right now continues to have a cloudy picture what is really going. The market continues to struggle with showing that it has any real major rally potential yet. By the end of this week we should have a better handle on figuring things out better.... As for now it looks like I might have been a little premature trying to buy those couple Calls last week.]]> <![CDATA[May 2010]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=644 Tue, 04 May 2010 16:35:35 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=644 Tuesday, 4 May, 2010 NOON-- Odds favor now the US stock market is setting up for a short-term pullback that we have not had in a while. The SPY, QQQQ, DIA daily charts all broke key short-term supports earlier this morning. We recommended two weeks ago to be more conservative and cautious the markets. Now the technical picture is catching up with my earlier intuitive feelings based on unusually higher rotation I started to observe two weeks ago.]]> Tuesday, 4 May, 2010 NOON-- Odds favor now the US stock market is setting up for a short-term pullback that we have not had in a while. The SPY, QQQQ, DIA daily charts all broke key short-term supports earlier this morning. We recommended two weeks ago to be more conservative and cautious the markets. Now the technical picture is catching up with my earlier intuitive feelings based on unusually higher rotation I started to observe two weeks ago.]]> <![CDATA[April 2010]]> http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=643 Mon, 05 Apr 2010 14:54:33 +0000 http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?tid=643 Monday, 5 April 2010 --

We continue to like many of last months stock ideas... on pullbacks, or course. Here are a few update observations from this morning:

Energy slowly getting better this spring; crude oil making a move recently.

Attractive recent trends appear solid, worth ideas on pullbacks-- CLF, WLT, GD, FLS, EWZ, and CLB, PRGO, CREE, RS, CNQ, PRU, SLX, CMI, TNA, GWW, SLAB, BXP, SPG, ROST, XME, WYNN, NFLX, PNRA, UPRO, CMG, AYI, BGU, keep rockin...

Seems like Gold is slowly (selective stocks) inching up again. TSL,HP,

Steel, some metals stocks acting well. ie, RTP acting well, newer high]]> Monday, 5 April 2010 --

We continue to like many of last months stock ideas... on pullbacks, or course. Here are a few update observations from this morning:

Energy slowly getting better this spring; crude oil making a move recently.

Attractive recent trends appear solid, worth ideas on pullbacks-- CLF, WLT, GD, FLS, EWZ, and CLB, PRGO, CREE, RS, CNQ, PRU, SLX, CMI, TNA, GWW, SLAB, BXP, SPG, ROST, XME, WYNN, NFLX, PNRA, UPRO, CMG, AYI, BGU, keep rockin...

Seems like Gold is slowly (selective stocks) inching up again. TSL,HP,

Steel, some metals stocks acting well. ie, RTP acting well, newer high]]>