Wed, 7 July 2010 -- The market is starting to act a little bit better after a two week decline. It is encouraging but too early to tell with great certainty if it can work back up into at least a trading range for this month. My guess is the DJ Industrial is still trying to stay close to 10,000 for the near-term and might even push up to 10,100 shortly?
Wed 7 July 2010 Afternoon Update-- Today's S&P500 E-Mini Profile shows why we see encouragement that the current ES daily support of the past couple days can hold. The PA Short has hit its target already, which suggests the Bears are less incline now to push the two week down market even lower. Secondly, the SD and SC Short setups are no longer quality. We actually see Rotations above 4, suggesting Bulls are now more aggressively battling with Bears to create a bottom pattern. In addition, the quality DD Buy setup trade from earlier this morning is working very well. Finally, the Buy rotation is now pushing the red (weakness out) and blue (buy strength) in up to the SA room in less than four hours. This suggests a more legitimate, sustainable type of buying. It would imply the Bulls are more willing to hold Longs right now and are not rushing to exit their trades. The existence of all three forms of strength-- Super trend, Normal trend, and Momentum trend strength in the DT Profile Strength Bars is also more of a positive for those who have Bullish tendencies right now. Bottomline: We feel good about this buying becoming more sustainable at the current lows established late last week.
End-Of-Day Update;
Wed, 7 July 2010 --
As you can see from the early today post, the S&P500 E-Mini did a breakout move above 1042 (see earlier today chart post) and continued higher into the close. Odds favor more buyers or Shorts will be covered on the next dip down to supports. In addition, the DJ Industrial Average index closed back above a key 10,000 level. This helps maintain a manageable trader balance between Bullish and Bearish behaviors.
Monday Morning, 12 July 2010 --
There really isn't anything newsworthy nor earnings release related this morning that will drive the market. Hence, I suspect today day-traders will have "profit-taking" tendencies after a good finish last week. I suspect the US market will struggle to advance today but odds will improve later this week by Thursday as some really good stocks are coming out with earnings releases by that date.
Here are some notes I took for myself as I started to look for and evaluate whether to take possible pre-announced earnings options strategies this week in anticipation of some kind of good or bad reactions.
EARNINGS SEASON starts to really pick up next week. Below are key ideas…
MONDAY -- (not expecting much postive today.)
(before) - HAL, HAS, MMR, EDU;
(after) - IBM, STLD, TXN, ATHR, BRO, CCK, IEX, LNCR, PKG, SWI, TUP, ZION
Hasbro (HAS) – has a decent pullback, any good news can rebound near-term.
McMoRan Exploration (MMR) – any good news is setup for favorable reaction.
Atheros Comm (ATHR) – if can hold 26, good setup for a surprise and basing now?
Lincare Holdings (LNCR) – Holding daily 200MA. If 26-25 support holds rally to 28,29,, 30 not unreasonable idea the next month or so.
Tupperware (TUP) – Been in a correction since March but good basing. Any good news better odds for a rebound now. Needs to stay above 38.
Zion Bank (ZION) – Daily chart holding on 200MA, oscillator internal divergence, 3 month correction possible Wave 4 setup basing now? This one is kind of interesting for a longer-term Call option play if it continues to develop like it is setting up to be.
Tuesday (13 July) -- You get a few more big name companies coming out today so more movement interest today...
(before) - BK, BIIB, FRX, GS, HOG, JNJ, LXK, MTB, MI, BTU, PEP, PETS, PII, STT, AMTD, UNH, WFT;
(after) - ALTR, AMX, AAPL, ATR, BSX, CYBI, CYT, FIS, GILD, INFN, LM, LLTC, MANH, PTP, SYK, VMW, YHOO
Goldman Sachs (GS) – has a basing pattern and 5/35 oscillator divergences that look like any positive surprises could get a very oversold condition to find relief. A gap above 140 is a positive that will make 150 become the next higher target.
Biogen (BIIB) -- Is setting up to stop the 3 month decline. Odds favor it will start to do better so long as it can hold 45 on the next big pullback. It is building a possible stair-step pattern now. Slightly overbought the past week but attractive on dip.
Harley Davidson (HOG) -- Take a look at HOG for a possible small idea. Nothing major... if it can hold 20 area now has potential to rebound.
LexMark (LXK) -- Complex correction, holding near 200 MA. Still basically in an uptrend since 2009.
M&T Bank (MTB) -- This bank stock looks like a decent bullish trend. As long as it stays above 84 looks good.
Altera (ALTR) -- Still acting like a decent uptrend in progress.
Apple (AAPL) -- What can you say, the company is hot.. current trend seems strong but been choppy lately. It could go either way on earnings but I still like the overall uptrend going on, in general. Maybe a spread strategy could work here?
Boston Scientific (BSX) -- Not expecting much on earnings but, hey, is worth taking a longer-term look at this one for possible Leap option type idea??? Double bottom test happened and holding now.
Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) -- Just looks interesting. Not a priority trade setup but good trend in progress.
Linear Tech (LLTC) -- Acting positive lately after consolidation. Good supports at 26 & 25... crap if lower, 32 target?
Stryker (SYK) -- A very decent setup worth a look before earnings. Needs to hold 50 - 48 for best odds now.
VMWare (VMW) -- This is a continual performer. Worth at least a look and monitor after earnings for sure for later idea.
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(Note to Self: Finish work on rest of the week today... below are some of my favorites I want to check out during today.)
WEDNESDAY
(before) - ABT, AAI, MO, AMR, ATMI, CHKP, KO, CMA, ETN, ELN, EMC, ECA, FO, FCX, GENZ, MAN, MS, NVR, PJC, DGX, STJ, SY, TXT, UTX, USB, WFC, WHR
(after) - AFFX, AMLN, BXP, BCR, CMG, CTAS, CNS, EBAY, FFIV, ISIL, ISRG, NFLX, NE, RT, STX, SLM, SBUX, TSCO, WLT, WERN, XLNX
THURSDAY (Big Earnings Day! Odds favor this could a respectable day with many good companies coming out today?)
(before) - MMM, APD, ALK, ACI, T, BAX, BBT, BX, BMY, BG, CCMP, CAT, CAL, CBE, CY, DHR, DAL, DLX, DO, DOV, LLY, EXC, FLIR, GNTX, HSY, HBAN, IDC, ESI, JNS, JBLU, KEY, LH, NYT, NOK, NOC, NUE, OXY, PM, PNC, RTN, RS, HOT, STI, TDY, TMO, TNB, TRAD, TRV, UTEK, UNP, UPS, LCC, VFC, WSO, ZMH, ZOLL
(after) - ADS, AMZN, AXP, ATHN, AVID, BIDU, BUCY, CNI, COF, CAK, CB, CRUS, CTXS, CLB, CYMI, DECK, FLEX, HGSI, BLUD, IBKR, KLAC, LEG, WFR, MTD, MSCC, MSFT, MOS, NTGR, OLN, OSIP, PMCS, QLGC, RMBS, RJF, SNDK, SANM, SKX, STM, SPWRA, TEX, TQNT, WGAV
FRIDAY
(before) - ASH, DLR, HON, IR, JCI, KMB, MCD, R, SLB, TROW, VZ
Opps, the earnings list is for next week not this week. This week's earnings starts out slow and builds up to next week.
Tuesday, 13 July 2010 -- Here is this weeks Earnings notes I took after reviewing things....
Monday, July 12
Earnings Reaction Positive – AA, NVLS
Earnings Reaction Negative – CSX
Tuesday, July 13
Earnings Reaction Positive this morning--
Earnings Reaction Negative this morning – FAST, HITK, INFY
Waiting for Release After Close:
HTLD, AIR, ADTN, HCSG, INXI
INTC (Intel) – chart uptrend looks ok still
YUM (Yum Brands) – overall uptrend still looks ok
Wednesday, July 14
(Before) –
AMR, ASML, IGTE, JTX, MTOX, TXI
PGR (Progressive) – safe uptrend if can stay above 18 now.
(After) –
LSTR
MAR (Marriott) – holding well at 32. Pullback buy setup so long as stays above 28.
Thursday, July 15
(Before) –
VIVO, MTG, NXY, NVS, TCB, WWW, CBSH, FCS,
SCHW (Charles Schwab) -- capable of minor up move if good results, oversold.
JPM (JP Morgan Chase) – support at 36 holding.
PPG (PPG Ind) – basing well at 60-59.
GWW – acting ok now after consolidation phase, now basing at 96
(After) –
AMD, APP, ANGO, CTAS, CBST, CVBF, JBHT, PBCT, PLCM
GOOG (Google) – mostly watching reaction. Spread strategy only thing safe now
JOEZ – interesting $2 stock with attractive longer-term daily basing at 200MA pattern
Friday, July 16
(Before) –
C (Citigroup), FHN, GCI (Gannet), GE (General Electric), KNL, MAT, WBS,
COL (Rockwell Collins)
BAC (Bank of America) – somewhat ok if 13.50 base keeps holding now.
GPC (Genuine Parts) – interesting consolidation phase holding above 200MA.
2010 Summer Earnings Season
SUMMARY UPDATE
Friday 16 July 2010; 5:00PM NYT
Brief End-of-Week Summary – Only a few stocks look decent this week after earnings. (ADTN & GPC, maybe GWW) The rest are so-so near-term. Next week (July 19-23) starts to pick up earnings results as week progresses.
Monday, July 12
Earning Positive Reaction – AA, NVLS
Earning Negative Reaction – SHAW
Earning Neutral Reaction – CSX
Follow-Up: Nothing stands out
Tuesday, July 13
Earning Positive Reaction – ADTN, HCSG, INTC
Earning Negative Reaction – FAST, HITK, INFY, YUM
Earning Neutral Reaction – HTLD, AIR
Follow-Up:
HITK might be slowly building for a down trend. (minor idea)
AIR momentum down, selling rallies to as high as $19 resistance. (minor idea)
ADTN still attractive on good pullback. (minor idea)
INTC is sort of ok if it can hold 19 now on next big pullback. (minor idea)
Wednesday, July 14
Earning Positive Reaction – ASML, IGTE
Earning Negative Reaction – PGR, LSTR, MAR
Earning Neutral Reaction – AMR, TXI
Follow-Up:
IGTE still attractive on good pullback to 14-13. (minor idea)
PGR sort of ok if it can hold 18 near-term on pullback. (minor idea)
TXI slow downtrend looking like it can continue. (medium idea)
MAR looking like it is stair-stepping lower to eventual downtrend? (medium idea)
Thursday, July 15
Earning Positive Reaction – SCHW, FCS,
Earning Negative Reaction – VIVO, MTG, NXY, NVS, PPG, TCB, WWW, GOOG, PBCT, PLCM
Earning Neutral Reaction – CBHS, JPM, MTOX, GWW, AMD, ANGO, CTAS, CBST, CVBF, JBHT, JOEZ,
Follow-Up:
NVS still attractive on good pullback to 47-46? (minor idea)
GWW looks interesting if it drops to 100-97, has to stay above 95. (medium idea)
GOOG can rebound if it can hold 440-420 area within a month (minor idea)
Friday, July 16
Earning Positive Reaction – GPC,
Earning Negative Reaction – BAC, C, FHN, GCI, GE, MAT, COL, WBS
Earning Neutral Reaction – KNL
Follow-Up:
GCI could be ok for a buy if it can hold 12 now? (minor idea)
GPC acting well still. Needs to hold 39-38 now. (medium idea)
KNL somewhat ok if it can hold 12-11.75 now (minor idea)
MAT could be heading for a down trend? (medium idea)
COL could be ok if it can hold 50 this month? (minor)
WBS still holding above 200MA around 16-15 area. (minor)
Monday, July 19
(before) - HAL, HAS, MMR, EDU;
(after) - IBM, STLD, TXN, ATHR, BRO, CCK, IEX, LNCR, PKG, SWI, TUP, ZION
Tuesday, July 20
(before) - BK, BIIB, FRX, GS, HOG, JNJ, LXK, MTB, MI, BTU, PEP, PETS, PII, STT, AMTD, UNH, WFT;
(after) - ALTR, AMX, AAPL, ATR, BSX, CYBI, CYT, FIS, GILD, INFN, LM, LLTC, MANH, PTP, SYK, VMW, YHOO
Wednesday, July 21
(before) - ABT, AAI, MO, AMR, ATMI, CHKP, KO, CMA, ETN, ELN, EMC, ECA, FO, FCX, GENZ, MAN, MS, NVR, PJC, DGX, STJ, SY, TXT, UTX, USB, WFC, WHR
(after) - AFFX, AMLN, BXP, BCR, CMG, CTAS, CNS, EBAY, FFIV, ISIL, ISRG, NFLX, NE, RT, STX, SLM, SBUX, TSCO, WLT, WERN, XLNX
Thursday, July 22 (Big Earnings Day!)
(before) - MMM, APD, ALK, ACI, T, BAX, BBT, BX, BMY, BG, CCMP, CAT, CAL, CBE, CY, DHR, DAL, DLX, DO, DOV, LLY, EXC, FLIR, GNTX, HSY, HBAN, IDC, ESI, JNS, JBLU, KEY, LH, NYT, NOK, NOC, NUE, OXY, PM, PNC, RTN, RS, HOT, STI, TDY, TMO, TNB, TRAD, TRV, UTEK, UNP, UPS, LCC, VFC, WSO, ZMH, ZOLL
(after) - ADS, AMZN, AXP, ATHN, AVID, BIDU, BUCY, CNI, COF, CAK, CB, CRUS, CTXS, CLB, CYMI, DECK, FLEX, HGSI, BLUD, IBKR, KLAC, LEG, WFR, MTD, MSCC, MSFT, MOS, NTGR, OLN, OSIP, PMCS, QLGC, RMBS, RJF, SNDK, SANM, SKX, STM, SPWRA, TEX, TQNT, WGAV
Friday, July 23
(before) - ASH, DLR, HON, IR, JCI, KMB, MCD, R, SLB, TROW, VZ
Tuesday, 20 July 2010 -- The market has not really reacted to anything too positively this earning season. Now IBM and GS are down on pre-market earnings release news. We are anticipating this pullback to work down previous June/July lows. Then the test builds if later this week we are going to improve odds for even a mild rally. Bulls are waiting patiently if interested in establishing near-term new positions. Bears are starting to make a little money on their recent net Shorts or Puts.
Friday, 23 July 2010 -- The earnings season results are starting to produce some positives and the market is reacting reasonably well now. We can see some more bulls trying to buy some of the pullbacks on near-term dips. Traditionally during the earning season the good stuff comes out early and the bad stuff later. Maybe that will be when a pullback occurs where some Bulls can try to buy something lower risk as prices once again move back down towards key support ranges?