Tuesday, 4 May, 2010 NOON-- Odds favor now the US stock market is setting up for a short-term pullback that we have not had in a while. The SPY, QQQQ, DIA daily charts all broke key short-term supports earlier this morning. We recommended two weeks ago to be more conservative and cautious the markets. Now the technical picture is catching up with my earlier intuitive feelings based on unusually higher rotation I started to observe two weeks ago.
Wednesday, 5 May 2010 -- My how quickly things can change! European money problems are helping NY Energy Futures prices to drop considerably in two days! The downside is this worry about Europe is adding a little pressure to our stock market, which temporally is stalling out recent gains. US Dollar is growing stronger again. Lots changed in less than two days. Got'ta rethink some forecasts and near-term trading strategies now. We have needed a pullback for a while now... just have to rethink the changing dynamics to better understand the near-term trading implications.
Monday, 10 May 2010 -- The Union's $970 billion aid plan sends U.S. stock futures up more than 400 points before the official open. If the pre-US stock market activity is correct last weeks correction should end up being one of the shortest corrections in history? We sure live in goofy times! I will cash in my few Puts I did at the close to hedge. Looks like the market escaped more bad news. Should be OK again as we were hoping but this dramatic up and down swing movement has got to make it almost impossible for anyone other than a day-trader to initiate new trades until we can get things to settle down.
Friday, 14 May 2010 -- Looks like today will be another tough correction type day. Hope this one doesn't get out of hand like last week.
Monday, 17 May 2010. Noon NYT EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS --
Early in our live class this morning we talked about today's markets and reviewed the DT Matrix was offering as far as day-trade shorts. Will live the list up in the class for a while longer if you are interested in reviewing today's discussion.) ... below are today's early morning observations, or things I am reflecting upon to see what happens near term....
Looks like pullback continues into the new week. Can DJ Industrial can hold 10,200 (10,135) to 10,000 (9,978) area later this options expiration week? If so, I can see a bull trying to position something before Memorial Day weekend holiday.
NY Crude dropped below $70 today puts pressure on crude oil bulls. It could eventually test lower $60's if they cannot quickly push it back into $70 range. Upper 70's to lower $80's now strongest resistance zone on any near-term rallies.... many energy stocks appear to be vulnerable near-term to this potential pullback weakness.
NY Gold still appears to be in either a range bound market or one building for a brief pullback to sucker new bulls out of recent positions. Some are concerned Gold futures is forming a double top. I suspect it is more overbought rather than a double top.
Because the US Dollar (daily chart) gapped higher today, odds favor it will attempt to cover that gap this week. If so, it still can be bullish and does not appear to be an island reversal even if it reverses later this week hard. In general, the US Dollar appears to still have overall net bullish tendencies near-term.
Noticing many of the very high flying Nasdaq stocks continue to be sold more aggressively on little counter trend rallies since the 1,000 point sell off day. That might suggest institutional investors are slowly reducing their positions, maybe trying to preserve or lock in some profits for the near-term... if correct, this adds much higher risk to those bulls out there still trying to chase the minor pullbacks. The momentum might be drying up short to near-term until those stocks once again appear to become bargains again?
... Just some 'observations' for today... thinking out-loud what to monitor for before Memorial Day weekend.
Tuesday, 18 May 2010 -- I forgot to mention yesterday this is options expiration week. Therefore, common sense suggests unexpected up and down moves this week are very possible. ... I still think odds favor more selling on any rally up to last weeks highs is a realistic assumption this week. If anything, this week could be big up and down swing moves within yesterday's low and last weeks highs? If it took out yesterday's lows later this week it would be better for those bulls positioning to buy something cheaper into the beginning of the summer trading that usually kicks off just before Memorial Day.
Wednesday, 19 May 2010 Update-- (See comments below from earlier this week previous post.)
The
DJ Industrial Average daily chart remains
vulnerable to more of a pullback this week. It took out Monday's minor pivot low this morning.
Gold broke down again today. What I did not say Monday was this, while I do not think it is a double top, I still am not in a hurry to try and buy this pullback. We will wait patiently for the very best support to identify itself.
Noticing previously strong up trending Nasdaq stocks
continue to sell off more than they rally, as suggested Monday is a real possibility.
Sitting with a lot of cash, waiting patiently for this pullback to show stability at key target supports identified earlier. My hope is just before Memorial Day weekend we see enough of a base established where buyers are once again willing to consider buying back something very oversold.
(05-17-2010 01:04 PM)Marc Rinehart Wrote: [ -> ]Monday, 17 May 2010. Noon NYT EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS --
Early in our live class this morning we talked about today's markets and reviewed the DT Matrix was offering as far as day-trade shorts. Will live the list up in the class for a while longer if you are interested in reviewing today's discussion.) ... below are today's early morning observations, or things I am reflecting upon to see what happens near term....
Looks like pullback continues into the new week. Can DJ Industrial can hold 10,200 (10,135) to 10,000 (9,978) area later this options expiration week? If so, I can see a bull trying to position something before Memorial Day weekend holiday.
NY Crude dropped below $70 today puts pressure on crude oil bulls. It could eventually test lower $60's if they cannot quickly push it back into $70 range. Upper 70's to lower $80's now strongest resistance zone on any near-term rallies.... many energy stocks appear to be vulnerable near-term to this potential pullback weakness.
NY Gold still appears to be in either a range bound market or one building for a brief pullback to sucker new bulls out of recent positions. Some are concerned Gold futures is forming a double top. I suspect it is more overbought rather than a double top.
Because the US Dollar (daily chart) gapped higher today, odds favor it will attempt to cover that gap this week. If so, it still can be bullish and does not appear to be an island reversal even if it reverses later this week hard. In general, the US Dollar appears to still have overall net bullish tendencies near-term.
Noticing many of the very high flying Nasdaq stocks continue to be sold more aggressively on little counter trend rallies since the 1,000 point sell off day. That might suggest institutional investors are slowly reducing their positions, maybe trying to preserve or lock in some profits for the near-term... if correct, this adds much higher risk to those bulls out there still trying to chase the minor pullbacks. The momentum might be drying up short to near-term until those stocks once again appear to become bargains again?
... Just some 'observations' for today... thinking out-loud what to monitor for before Memorial Day weekend.
Friday, 21 May 2010 -- I started nibbling this morning and bought some cheap Calls this morning... lows in couple key US Indexes holding and seeing a few very good, very oversold stocks so worth a small gamble today.
Wed, 28 May 2010 --
I said in our live class last week that I felt Gold was in a retracement mode but that I did not think it was a "double top" as some were suggesting. NY Gold has based out and is inching back up. I missed the buy support. Will see if we get a manageable pullback in early June again to maybe try a late play?
Yesterday, when the US Stock market gapped and traded 200-300 points lower, I almost gave up on the hopes we could get a position squaring rally before the Memorial Day weekend. I pretty much began to psychologically wrote off my couple Call options I bought Friday as a loss. When the market rallied back up yesterday afternoon I felt so much better. The market is a little jittery right now so we may need more of a base to attract more buy conviction, or to force more Shorts to cover over the next 5 to 6 trading days?
Here is what I think could happen now: up day today (wed), down day tomorrow (thur), a light rebound (fri) to finish the week. If we continue to act properly, I anticipate next weeks early June trading could be more positive.