Monday, 1 February 2010 --
As it did the first day of trading last month the stock market opened higher and shows good strength this morning. However, that being said, this is one time I will pass on buying something new other than if I am looking for a day-trade. As a longer-term 'Bull' waiting to put money back to work, there just are two many fundamental and technical contradictions now that did not exist early January.
Consequently, the risk of trading and losing money still seems very high... so, in my humble opinion, it just is not worth taking the risk. I would much rather miss out on a little profit now than potentially get trapped in what might very well still be a complex aggregate continuation pullback.
I still want to wait patiently to try and buy my favored stocks at a cheaper price later this month or next.
Only more market data will reveal what is a better way to try and catch a bigger move. I don't believe things have change since last Friday except institutional money traditionally has to start putting some new money back to work at the beginning of a new month or quarter or new year. Once that buying dries up what pushes things higher again? I am not encouraged it is time to step to the plate with conviction this early in February.
For now I think I will just day-trade these daily short-term fluctuations and get out again before the close because I still do see how the US stock market is fully ready yet to return the previous longer-term Bull run.
Tuesday, 2 Feb 2010 --
If I were day-trading today I would be trying some aggressive buy setups on very small time frames. Nothing fancy. I would be willing to do some buying today.
Tuesday 2 Feb 2010 Afternoon Update --
The market has continued to inch up very well two days in a row. While I still have reservations about believing this buying can or will continue for the whole month of Feb, I think we could be building a base now in some of the popular stocks that have retraced for quite a few weeks.
I would target the following stocks to analyze if you are an aggressive bull willing to take a little risk during this two-day rally. Just micro-manage anything new in case this early February buying peters out again in the next few days.
Stocks (or ETF's) pulling down to their daily 200MA that I can find today: EWZ, BLK, M, MDR, JOYG, SQM, FCX, AKS, GNA, ASA, BVN, IAG, GOLD, ASA, MET, AXP, KOL, ANN, PFE, TD, JPM, BAC, GLD, AGU, MOS, POT, PCLN, CEO, DIG, DO, ATW, GE, DRN, BRF, IBM is getting closer to its 200... maybe GS which is complex lately and slightly below its 200 daily MA.
The caveat is... last month the market did the same thing, started the first week very positive but by mid-month it reversed and ended very weak. The same thing could be happening this month.
Thursday, 4 February 2010 --
February is going to be a long month... for the shortest month of the year! I just know it...
Today the market is opening defensive and down. It is why I said after the initial first three trading days of February I did not have confidence that the Bulls could truly stage a massive rally just yet.
Today is going to be a down day. If day-trading I would quickly focus on finding some Short setups in the day-trading Matrix rooms and take advantage of today's weakness.
There are some patterns I respect and will continue to focus on to see if their basing patterns near key supports continue to improve (see last post)... but I have not officially bought anything yet.... Am still sitting patiently with lots of cash to be convinced something cheaper can finally hold at a key support.
A couple stocks I am sure have downward pressure right now is CME Group (symbol = CME) and Toyota (symbol = TM). TM getting beat up on continual bad news, and CME just reversed lower after holding in range for a week... pretty sure it is vulnerable now to more downside near-term, probably heading to $250 area is a guess.
One more stock I just noticed is not doing well today: Mastercard (symbol = MA). It gapped lower with a large gap, now down $13 only 10 minutes into the open. Odds favor MA is vulnerable to more profit-taking in the short-term... is probably now heading toward the 200 moving average.
I made a bold projection in January that I felt the market was now in a more complex, bigger pullback corrective mode. I also got out of my trades so to lock in profits. The first 2 trading days of Feb I almost got suckered into believing maybe the pullback was coming to an end... Thank goodness I continued to warn Bulls to be skeptical a little while longer because within 20 minutes of this morning stock market open I instantly realized the decline is going to end up exactly where my target said it was going. (see Jan 22 quote below)
Looks like the Bears are maintaining control and making some pretty easy money right now. You are a big sucker if you continue to let the institutional traders manipulate you into thinking any differently.
Quote: Posted: 01-22-2010, 03:23 PM/Friday, 22 January 2010 (noon) -- "What I felt was going to be the normal anticipated pullback many have been waiting for for quite a while now, is now potentially a more severe pullback. I continue to suggest longer-term bullish people be extremely careful and VERY patient this time before you try to pick this bottom.
If my instincts are correct, the DJ Industrial, for example, could be heading to 9,600-9,500 to 9,373 range. (25% daily chart pullback/200 exponential MA areas) ... It is a little pre-mature to suggest this, but I have to say what I am thinking is possible nevertheless to put into perspective what could happen to some of my more aggressive bullish friends."
Monday, 8 February 2010 --
It is early Monday morning and the market has been open about 20 minutes. Have been on the sidelines about two weeks trying to wait patiently for something to buy at cheaper prices for my retirement trading account. I still do not have an 'action plan' put together or figured out yet what to do? I still think the market appears to be in a complex, deeper pullback mode that makes this 'bottom-picking' a really tough proposition. My goal this week is to develop a trading strategy.
I think the market today is hinting it still wants to retrace or not really showing bullish tendencies. If day-trading today it might be easier to take advantage of weakness than pick the bottoms that might bounce later.
In our live class we will review some things to watch for this week.
Monday, 8 Fab 2010, End-of-Day post of DIA, QQQQ, and SPY DT Short setups...
Tuesday, 9 February 2010 --
This morning the market pushed quickly higher but I cannot really find any news that could explain it. I think it is short covering due to the storm approaching the east coast that will shut down again many of the big cities-- like Washington DC already is-- within the next few days (if all the snow comes weather people are forecasting)
I suspect the market can maintain the upward rebound, or stay range bound, if the volume continues to be low.
Thursday, 11 February 2010 --
All this east coast snow storm stuff has the market very directionally challenged. Great time for day-traders to just use channeling techniques and trade the oscillations. Other than that it is very difficult this week to know what to day if a bull or a bear? Maybe just go play in the snow is the best idea and forget looking at the markets for a few days?
Thursday, 11 February 2010 (Noon Update) --
At the beginning of February I pointed out that there are a lot of stocks moving closer to their daily chart 200-period Moving Averages, enough that it warrants targeting those stocks this month if one were bullish. I posted those ideas to target because I felt those favored stocks were very oversold and due for a bounce any time this month.
However, do I think this rally is sustainable to new highs? That is the billion dollar question. No, I do not think that is what is going on right now. I will only get a maximum of 60% invested because or this possibility. (I still secretly would like to buy many of my favorite stocks cheaper, maybe next month if they went lower later.)
Today, I am going to buy something. I think the market is capable of rallying more. I decided it is time to step up to the plate and swing at a few pitches. At this stage I just want to get on base, am not trying to hit a home-run.
(Translation: I am not trying to establish new longer-term trades, just taking some short-term quick 'oversold condition' buy types of trades. I will be happy to have even a quick small profit.)
FWIW-- One stock I am attracted to is Berkshire Hathaway 'B' shares. Since it did a 50-to-1 stock split it is now much more affordable and attractive to the little traders like me. (Will be using retirement acct money for this one so can stay in as long as I want to... or buy more later.)
Friday, 12 February 2010 --
Yesterday I bought a little of Berkshire Hathaway 'B' shares. I figured this would be safer than trying to pick which individual stocks would do best during this erratic market in February.
Because the market is closed Monday for President's Day, plus maybe lacking genuine conviction because of east coast bad weather shutdowns. I don't seem myself doing anything more this week.
I will use this time to do some more serious technical analysis work to see if I can further grasp deeper insights into current market conditions.
FWIW-- The US Dollar continues to strengthen. Some say this is may not be good in the near-term it continues to strengthen because it will make it harder to grow ourselves out of this recession. I really don't know but wanted to let you know the US Dollar chart does look a little bullish lately.
Tuesday, 16 February 2010 --
We said last week we would be willing to buy something if we are aggressive traders, based more on technical analysis oversold conditions and daily supports holding at or near key 200-period moving averages on many of our key targeted stocks and not so much on Dynamic Trend Profiles. We would watch for positive buy rotation to confirm. We are seeing more of that confirmation today.
We are starting off this week in a positive way again. We see aggressive bulls more willing to buy things this week as we see unwinding of some vastly oversold daily chart conditions as we get closer to February options expiration.
We still do not feel the market is ready for a major new bull market continuation trend. We are just happy to take some new buy trades setting up for now.
NY Energy and Metals futures holding nicely near-term. We like the idea they can rebound in the near-term... but we hope and pray those rebounds do not lead to newer highs next month and beyond because that means greater inflation could be picking up over the coming next six months, quicker higher interest rates later this spring, potentially a form of high unemployment with a still struggling world economy comes to mind under that scenario. It is technically premature to mention this but I feel like suggesting it as something to watch for the next few months in case my instincts are correct.
Thursday, 25 Feb 2010 --
This week the stock market has been in an oscillating mode. You can see from the lack of phase analysis that there currently is no sustainable trend.
Unless you are in a strong individual stock that is trending this is not a great time to time the market right now. It is very unpredictable.