Tuesday, Sept 1, 2009- The US stock market has been floundering for about a week or so. Today is the beginning of a new trading month and the bias remains clearly down all day. If we continue this way the next couple days we might finally have our correction we have been waiting a couple months for?
Wednesday, 2 Sept 2009- Gold making a nice advance today. I bought a little of AUY in anticipation of more follow-through this month and AUY looked like it could be managable even under the worse case scenario type of near-term pullback. Also really liked NEM and AEM but felt like I would be chasing them to much here.
Tuesday, 8 Sept 2009- Everyone had a nice long Labor Day weekend but now it is time to get back to work! This morning the pre-market action suggests a positive open. A few new observations worth noting this morning... (1) it took over a month since the US dollar made a newer low and then range traded back up... but today it finally is making another newer low, suggests a lower US Dollar coming this fall; (2) last time US$ when down inverse happen in NY Crude Oil... which might suggest why Crude is up nicely this morning-- suggest energy futures prices will hold steady to up now; (3) Gold is trading above $1,000 this morning... suggesting maybe either a flight to quality or what not sure yet; (4) the Chinese markets appear to be stablizing now. We will be watching more closely for money flow insights for better insights how these things will affect the near term market movements.
Wed, 9 Sept 2009-- You know, as much as I want to say this market is topping out... It just doesn't seem to be acting that way? Maybe not in September anyway?
But I also have to add here, I am not comfortable with what I am seeing. For a year and a half I had this terrible feeling something wasn't right and did not add up when the market continued to hold up and do what many people could not fundamentally understand. I personally think it would be healthy if this market would take more of a breather than what it seems to be doing with very limited pauses or pullbacks. In the long-run, this behavior- this continuing strong uptrend- is going to only leave us with more serious heartache in the future.
As bullish as I have been in the past, as bullish as I might still want to be, I really am starting to get a little more concerned about what I am seeing right now. It just doesn't feel right.
Hey, I learned a long time ago not to tell the market what to do. I just watch and observe for the obvious and then try to take advantage of it as a trader. I will keep trying to do this but I am getting a little more afraid someday this market is going to kick my butt if I do not exercise some discipline and extra due diligence.
That is why I am having a hard time being fully invested no matter how strong things might appear at times. I just know trading is not this easy.
Thursday, Sept 24 Update-- It has been a good month for bulls... however, we are approaching the end of this week and month...
BOTTOM-LINE: Be a little more cautious buying new stuff until Friday afternoon or into next week. Seems to be too much unexpected or anticipated hard selling at tops now... it suggests to me the big boys of the east coast are gunning for yours and my little guy stops again.
The rotation in NY ENERGY and METAL Futures is a little harder to the downside the last 24 hours. I think that means a little more profit-taking and lower prices is coming into those stock areas... If you like them, you could probably be able to buy them cheaper if you are more patient right now if this impression is correct.
Tuesday, Sept 29 Update- We said last Thursday we warned bulls to stand aside and let the market correct, as we felt the 'big boys' were going to be gunning for stops, or it looked like the market was entering a pullback phase. Our warnings proved to be wise. Thursday and Friday ended up being down days.
Now Monday the market nicely rebounded. Selective quality stocks were being bought again at those cheaper prices.
We continue to remain optimist the market has not run out of steam and will not quit inching higher over time until, for example, the DJ Industrial can officially once again test 10,000... or even move up to my 10,400/10,500 next real target areas.
We continue to hold a net bias up position. (Current Asset Allocation = 60% invested, 40% cash for buying at cheaper prices)
(09-24-2009 12:11 PM)Marc Rinehart Wrote: [ -> ]Thursday, Sept 24 Update-- It has been a good month for bulls... however, we are approaching the end of this week and month...
BOTTOM-LINE: Be a little more cautious buying new stuff until Friday afternoon or into next week. Seems to be too much unexpected or anticipated hard selling at tops now... it suggests to me the big boys of the east coast are gunning for yours and my little guy stops again.
The rotation in NY ENERGY and METAL Futures is a little harder to the downside the last 24 hours. I think that means a little more profit-taking and lower prices is coming into those stock areas... If you like them, you could probably be able to buy them cheaper if you are more patient right now if this impression is correct.