Monday August 03, 2009 Update--
Noticed for first time in a while US Dollar breaking down. Is it accelerating to the downside now? Will that be the explanation why NY Crude Oil prices is working higher when we seem to have adequate inventories?
Also, NY High Grade Copper continues to trend higher... Is silver and gold going to inch back up this next quarter?
Just questions I am now thinking about that I have not really noticed until today....
Recently notice things, update (Aug 4) ... these comments are not priorities, mostly just observations sharing as a mild update. Overall impression-- things on track for slow bullish accumulation in August.
1. Some cheaper Chinese ADR stocks consistently inching higher... ie, NPD, CHA, CHL, SINA, BIDU, SNP, CEO, PTR... sciq, chu, HMIN, CEA, LFC, .. SOHU, YZC,
2. Really cheap, formerly great companies, their stock is being bought more convincingly lately... ie, AIG, GGC, C, CROX, C, LPX, SBUX, F, etc... it is as if major short squeeze strategies are being implemented by someone, and it seems to be attracting new money to those previously ignored, currently distressed companies stocks. These are very speculative plays but they could be work a little look as a part of an aggressive trading strategy.
3. Traditionally very solid companies, their stocks that got really beat up over the past year continue to slowly rise, looking like they will continue to be accumulated on pullbacks....ie, GE, JPM, BA, HPQ, JNJ, F
4. Many of the insurance and banking companies slowly getting better past month or so... looks still like a trend....ie, JPM, WFC, BBT, BAC... MA, V, AXP... MET, AFL, PRU
5. Some retail continue to rise even when reports not favorable... ie, SHLD, TGT.
6. I am not chasing things any more but I am willing still to buy something that has recently been solid if it pullbacks. I am buying some of these really cheap stocks that are just now picking up interest as speculative plays only.
7. The DJ Industrial Average-- when I look at the 30 individual stocks-- the majority look capable of still being bullish, or have room to rebound even more in near future.... a few are lagging like WMT, MCD, PZE, T, but they have good basing patterns. (The lagger DJIY stocks are not priorities but the other DJIY stocks trending strongly are very attractive on any good pullbacks near-term... ie, MMM, AXP, JPM, CAT, BA, IBM, INTC, HPQ, ... MRK, UTX, aggressive buy now for swing trade.)
8. The US Dollar reversed back up into its recent trading range after coming very close to a breakdown, downtrend continuation pattern. Would still monitor DX in August/Sept to see if it setups up again for a downtrend continuation if it shows it cannot take out resistance now once tested.
9. Twice now CME has looked terrible one day-- like it was going to resume the recent downtrend-- only to reverse very strongly the very next day. Contrary to public perception that is not what a bearish stock is suppose to do. I have to conclude this means it is just a matter of time... 'someone' wants it to trend back up to the previous June high of $350. Only time will tell... next test is $300...
10. Do you think it is possible we will see Dow 9,500 before the end of today? Sure would make great PR for weekend news to talk about!
Wed, 12 Aug 09 Update- FOMC decisions came and gone and US stock market continues to rebound after about a two day temporary pause, or mild pullback.
Monday, Aug 17, 2009- Several key stocks I look at broke a key technical support today. This is not a surprise as we have been anticipating the potential for a long overdue pullback for weeks. The market is vulnerable to more short-term 'profit-taking' or hedging as we move into August options expiration.
Friday, Aug 21- Should have known that Monday's gap lower weakness was not going to keep this bullish market down for long... not at least until it officially tests 9,500 in the DJ Industrial, which it is going to do today!
No, 'the Bull' is still in control!