Tues, July 07- We started off this week with quiet but controlled weakness yesterday that drifted upward over the course of the day. Today we are starting off in a similar manner but with some of this weakness creeping further into some of the previous leading stocks.
As I said yesterday, day-traders and short-term traders have to be careful buying too much because it appears the bears may have the upper hand in controlling things. As a longer term investor I have a ton of cash waiting to buy things cheaper but I just don't see any bargains for several weeks now until we get more of a correction.
I am starting to see more evidence that the bargains may be coming. For example, I like CME and ICE. Today they are breaking down again. CME just took out its last June daily chart low. ICE looks like it is inclined to do the same.
I also like RIMM, AAPL, BIDU, GOOG but am not willing to buy at their current highs... but they are slowly getting cheaper. But, if I want them really cheap I am going to have to be very patient and wait.
If I were a short-term or day-trader, I think trying to find shorts to trade-- using appropriate money management on those trades to protect them-- seems to be the best plan for now that seems to be working.... selling into minor rally resistance areas, for example.
Energy stocks and futures contracts continue to be in corrective, pullback modes still.
Monday, July 13, 2009-- I decided to buy a little CME and ICE today after a prolonged and deeper pullback in them the past few weeks. I am taking a chance doing so prior to GS earnings to be announced tomorrow morning but the broad based market strength today was encouraging for Bulls who have been waiting patiently on the sidelines the past few weeks.
In our live class today we got into a discussion on Insurance companies. Two of the three (MET, AFL, MFC) we discussed did very well today. We said they looked acceptable for aggressive day-traders/short-term traders willing to buy the today's technical support and use DT buy rotation to confirm. I also noticed PRU acting ok for an aggressive trader looking for an idea.
I endorsed AMZN as a personal preference idea early this morning for an aggressive DT rotational buy setup with my stop loss below 75. It also acted well today.
Wed, July 15, 2005-- We continue to see odds favoring more of a rebound this week, as first mentioned here Monday in a previous post.
Noticing today we have had three days of energy stock buying. Seeing buy setups in some of those stocks I have not seen in weeks. Interesting. Tech and Energy, other sectors/groups could be rotating back up for near-term bulls to take advantage of now, if you have not already acted earlier this week when I first pointed out this rotational issue.
Friday some Bank stock earnings to watch for market reaction. If favorable- as I think they will be- this week should be finishing off with a solid rebound week. This puts Bears more on the defensive short-term.
We are not talking about a run-away bull market but an oversold rebound after a few weeks of solid selling and pulling back after a few months of a rally. Bulls should be able to make a little money now. Bears should rotate out more of positions, and standing aside more as they wait for resistance areas to eventually be tested.
I am currently fully invested.
Wed, July 15 Update--
Goldman (
GS) made a new high just now, today. Odds favor it will continue to act favorably in the near-term and will be a good buy candidate on pullbacks this summer. Some of the others similar to it, such as BLK, MS, etc, should benefit by the same kind of money flow back into those types of stocks. Is another reason why I bought a little
CME and
ICE Monday because I felt they too should benefit even more by this money flow I felt was going to return into financials short-term and since they sold off the most they had more rebound potential still... Again, just an observation I am seeing and verbalizing here only as an observation. I am sensing the banks might actually have something good to report Friday as well.... or at least the market is not acting like it is worried or defensive going into that key earnings news Friday morning.
PS-
MET,
AFL, and
AMZN continue to do well since discussed Monday morning live DT class. I am willing to still stay Long some of that initial position still, for now. Will update tomorrow in class.
(07-13-2009 04:19 PM)Marc Rinehart Wrote: [ -> ]Monday, July 13, 2009-- I decided to buy a little CME and ICE today after a prolonged and deeper pullback in them the past few weeks. I am taking a chance doing so prior to GS earnings to be announced tomorrow morning but the broad based market strength today was encouraging for Bulls who have been waiting patiently on the sidelines the past few weeks.
In our live class today we got into a discussion on Insurance companies. Two of the three (MET, AFL, MFC) we discussed did very well today. We said they looked acceptable for aggressive day-traders/short-term traders willing to buy the today's technical support and use DT buy rotation to confirm. I also noticed PRU acting ok for an aggressive trader looking for an idea.
I endorsed AMZN as a personal preference idea early this morning for an aggressive DT rotational buy setup with my stop loss below 75. It also acted well today.
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noon update--
PCP looks like a nice daily chart Type 1 now triggered... watching for pullbacks on hourly chart to target now.
Same with NFLX... but watch an hourly or something like a 120 minute chart pullback to target?
SWC -- might actually be basing now... Today would be the breakout trigger and would be willing to consider it on a pullback to as low as 4.50 but then would have my stop loss below that or slightly lower if it doesn't work out... this stock is capable of trending back up some more now as a possible w5 candidate
CCJ -- interesting on daily as a pullback candidate down to as low as 22 but stopping out that loss if it did not hold now below that area... previous high possible w5 candidate target.
A bounce of semiconductor or chip stocks are acting very well today... sustainable type of buy potentials on near-term pullbacks.
HOT, MAR... interesting on pullbacks to last weeks lows... but would stop out any future trades if taken below last weeks low if no follow-through...
I have not had time to look at everything... just sharing some general observations here is all for you to do your own due diligence inspection to see if they might be applicable to your style of trading.
Friday, July 17, Miscellaneous Random Comments....
- HOT and MAR still look 'ok' on this last pullback, so long as their previous July 8th lows holds now. These are not priority trade ideas, just a follow-up from a previous post mention.
- Hey, Mike, I mentioned in our live class this week that I felt your LVS buy setup idea from a month ago finally is safe to play. Still looks 'ok.'
- JPM is starting to catch my eye as a possible candidate in the near future for a buy and hold type strategy, as a part of a diversified retirement portfolio. Will be doing more detailed due diligence efforts before I make a final decision in the next month.
- SJM is also catching eye. The company has done some major changes over the past few years, and it is in an industry that will be stable even under the worst case scenarios for the economy. Again, I will be doing a lot more due diligence efforts to further qualify it in the near-term, and develop a trading strategy to manage any trade longer-term, but for now I wanted to mention it is showing something positive, is worth checking out more soon.
- It looks like the NY Crude Oil market is going to re-establish the $60 to $70 range for its trading range the next few weeks.
Just 'observations' is all.
Thur, July 22-- As we wind down in towards the end of July, and as we pick up in earnings season results, the market is showing a return to the bullishness it showed earlier this year. I will update later this weekend or early next week my overall market ideas... but right now it still feels bullish to me. I am still fully invested.
Mentioned a lot of buy s/t observations this morning in our live class. It looks like GIS finally is showing a new buy setup we had been waiting for for a week or so, is one idea we found in our class today.
Wed, July 29, 2009-- The US stock market has been going through a slight pause or pullback phase the past three trading days. As we approach the end of July trading in a couple days, and peak earnings season, we see the market holding steady but not dynamic as it has been the last two weeks.
Today we see strong liquidation in the NY Crude Oil market. Energy futures are week, in general, the past few days. This would explain where some of the profit-taking is taking place as money continues to move away again from energy this week after a good run up in it.
Currently we are waiting patiently for some newer quality SD type trades to set up. We just have to be patient this week.
Thursday, July 30 Market Update-- After three days of nothing exciting, this morning is starting out with a little more positive energy. It looks like the bulls are grabbing the momentum for today and buying some things.
MA and V finally acting more positive.
Will share more during our Thursday morning, live class in about 20 minutes.
Today looks like a good buy day!