Last Friday, May 1, we noticed some rotation of more money going back into two lagging groups, Dry Shipping and Coal. We also saw some money flowing into other up and down groups, such as mining, some select energy, chemical and steel stocks. We established some more positions in those areas. Here are some symbols we mentioned being attracted to Friday: PCX, JRCC, DRYS, CLF, USO... couple weeks earlier SWN, FCX, GS, ZNH, AKS.
SOME "OBSERVATIONS".....
Solar or related (and wind) stocks continue to experience buy rotation back into ever since First Solar's (FSLR) positive earnings. Stocks like FSLR, CSIQ, WFR, STP, LDK, CY, AMAT, TSL, AKNS, SOLF, CSUN, YGE.... AMSC, OC, TNB,
Noticed about a week ago the three Chinese Energy ADR's doing well... CEO, PTR, SNP. Today they are leading again.
Several Chinese ADR's in addition to those above also keep holding their own.
Energy holding will with NY futures acting well since late last week. Wondering also if Natural Gas is finally trying to base out? First time in a year and a half finally am interested in this area.
RIMM, BIDU, GOOG, AAPL... continue to act very well... watching for next good pullback. RIMM recently made a breakout move.
Wondering if gold/silver are finally basing out enough to stage more of a rally near-term after about a two month consolidation phase?
Back on April 28 I said I really liked SWN. It made a breakout move, consolidated, and then Friday closed up strongly again. I still really respect the pattern and would be very interested in buying or adding to it on the next good dip.
Ford (F) is getting ahead of itself and is due for a pullback in May. The way it is acting lately it is becoming a clear favorite for succeeding and money is clearly flowing back into it. Long-term players continue to add Ford to their portfolios on good pullbacks.
If GM manages to wiggle its way out of bankruptcy protection the auto industry could become a major bottom with lots of money flowing back into it. Is a very big gamble at this stage... which is why I am under the impression once some good news confirms no bankruptcy move is going to happen in June, this industry is setting up for a powerful rebound move... (CAVEAT-- if bankruptcy protection happens for GM, expecting or anticipating a very negative reaction and finally a our bear market pullback setup.)
A friend of mine really likes CME and ICE. As a more conservative trader I agree, but only waiting for a breakout move to confirm....
IOH has made a breakout move and is going to be easier to buy dips with appropriate risk/reward strategies. USO is lagging but looking more attractive for cheaper play. RIG, DO, etc is picking ups steam.
Visa (V) is attractive on a pullback to the breakout of last week....
About a month or so ago I said I liked some of the cheaper energy stocks I found at the time with a search... I still like OIH, KWK, NXY, HLX, USO....
Here is a list of Symbols I said I liked in today's Real-Time DT class.. and that I would try to update and expand those comments in our next Thursday, May 7th class-- gg, auy, gss, iag, iau, nem, sa...... energy nat gas... CRZO, chk, SWN, BEXP, XEC, .... MMR, PQ... DVN, APA, rd...mro, TSO, vlo, wnr, hoc.... chinese; coal, YZC.
I said I liked Coal and Water Tranportation as laggers starting to show more buying and I bought little positions in DRYS, PCX, CLF because of impressions. They continue to do well since that observation.
I don't have enough money to buy everything I am attracted to so I will share with you other symbols I have liked and continue to like going into early May-- CMC, EMC, BWA, ISRG, QSII, AMSC, GD, MLM, $SOX, FLS, WINN, WIN, MHK PNRA , WHR, ATI, JPM, TSL, AGU, V, SCHN, RIMM, OSG, CEO, APA, PG, MTG, WLT, POT, CERN.... PBR... CLB, BLK... LASTLY, interested in, but only on a more deeper pullback, still respect NFLX, PNRA, CMG, DNDN.
That is about all the observations I can remember for now.... Hope this helps someone out there.
I am not afraid to buy stuff for now....
Energy is going to run some more.... Focus on your energy stocks if you have ignored them in this rally you are missing out in a little extra gain.
Wed, May 6 Update-- If you are not in a refinery stock-- WNR, MRO, HOC .... HES, TSO, VLO-- you want to give it serious consideration for a trade this month... am seeing respectable breakouts in WNR and MRO today.
PRU is attractive on pullbacks in the month of May
Looks like the market is starting the week off in a pullback, profit-taking mode. We are waiting patiently for supports to hold later this week.
Wednesday, May 13 2009-- Waiting for this "profit-taking" pullback to evolve where recent run-ups in stocks become better bargains. Sitting tight on sidelines last couple days while this thing does its thing. Focusing on stuff mentioned a week or two ago. Just be more patient in May.
GM is a problem now... you need to keep eye on it. Not for trading but for how its possible bankruptcy could affect the market near-term. Odds starting to favor they are going to go into some form of protected bankruptcy to get their house in order. The government has put them into an unrealistic deadline for solving their problems. Only a miracle where bond holders accept offer and maybe the union is willing to take its deal too. Unfortunately, it is starting to look more and more like it is too complicated to solve their problems in any other way other than the legal system. This could be one reason why the backing off in the market the last few days. It "feels" like a little more hedging starting to go on before Memorial Day weekend and GM June 1 government deadline. (plus May options expiry this week limiting action.)
I still want to buy some stuff highlighted here within the past two weeks, just looking for cheaper prices, better supports to attempt those new short-term trades... will manage new trades much more aggressively the closer we get to Memorial Day weekend and June 1st.
The overall markets still are not at their 'ideal' key stronger resistance areas where you have to start to really get more cautious....
Earlier this week in our Monday and Tuesday live classes we reiterated our respect for the Energy sector, specifically the Coal group. We analyzed most of the stocks and all but one looked respectably bullish.
This morning NY Crude, Unleaded Gas, Heating Oil and Natural Gas are all acting respectable again. Today NY Crude made started trading about $60 for 2nd day.
I have been saying I favored energy, mining, fertilizer, some chemicals, (see my previous post list of stocks for more favorites) stocks for about two months now. Nothing has changed accept the list has been expanded to include more energy stocks and definitely the agricultural related fertilizer stocks (but now only on good pullbacks if not holding positions in them already.)
Wishing you all a most excellent Memorial Day weekend! Remember to take time to reflect on the sacrifice of others so we can keep our freedom.
RANDOM OBSERVATIONS, FRIDAY MORNING, MAY 29, 2009--
If you scroll back to my post of May 4th, you will see many of my "observations" have proved to be insightful to a trader looking for areas to focus... Here is an update on some of those observations with new things noticing today... Hope this is helpful to someone out there.
(Caveat: It has been weeks and weeks since the stock market has had any type of good pullback... at some point in June one has to start anticipating some kind of a sudden, unexpected pullback of at least 5 to 8 to 12 trading days. If that happened, these stocks below are some who are giving favorable impressions at this moment, making them good candidates for consideration at... the right time, the right supports. I don't believe "chasing" things at this stage in the game is a healthy thing unless you are extremely good at money management and can keep a close eye on new positions... We are going to get a pullback someday... odds favor being very careful the first week in June, next week.)
(2nd Caveat: I have been saying for weeks If GM goes into bankruptcy, even if only temporary, it has to have a negative affect on the market. This is the only thing I can see near-term that could cause a healthy bigger pullback... JUST A REMINDER-- GM "D-DAY" is MONDAY MORNING! While the market isn't acting like it is concerned, bad things seem to happen over the weekend so Monday or Tuesday could be risky! Be careful with totally new ideas... and make sure you have updated your money management on profitable positions... be safe now, not sorry later.)
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Been saying for a month now i really like energy stocks for this summer.... seems like energy continues to act favorable for summer rebounds.
OIH making little newer breakout high this AM.... also, BUCY, NE, DO, RIG, PBR, GNK, CNQ, BHP, SA, FXE, JCG, SID, FWLT, HES, HOS, SWC, NAK, SLV, KOL, KWK (one of my favorites still, first mentioned it in April)-- all made mini-breakouts newer recent highs this morning... suggests some bullishness to it still. I said in April I liked the SWN breakout.... it made a newer recent high this morning as well.
I liked USO 6 bucks cheaper early May, still like it on pullback supports.
Precious metals continue to work uptrend's this past month...
A gold stock, Randgold (GOLD), keeps going and going and going higher.. what's up with it? Any really good pullback looks like it should be extremely attractive near-term to a gold bull.
Those three Chinese Energy ADR's keep trending higher since I first mentioned their bullishness over a month ago... CEO, PTR, SNY.
BIDU, GOOG, RIMM, AAPL, really are in good solid uptrends, quality enough where it appears any really good pullback to supports or pause mode will still attract some buying during this early summer weeks.
Noticed CLF rebounding after good pullback
Been noticing Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) continues to pick up trend... buying the dip down to 46-45, 44-43 seems worth tracking as an idea.
Wondering for a while now is there a safe way to buy into a pullback in RTP? Looks like it still has some slow but steady uptrending to come?
ABV looks like it will still have buyers waiting to add or jump in next few pullbacks to support areas.
PCZ still has some life to it and is a candidate for a buy if it can pullback to support levels near-term. Noticed also other Canadian ADR stocks acting nicely.
Coal and Water Transportation still lagging during this rally but they have been "basing" very well and still looking attractive near-term. Many of the refinery stocks appear to be in the same pattern. It just seems like a selective bull could be rewarded if just a little more patient.
Yesterday we added Natural Gas ETF (UNG) to the very aggressive bottom-picking contrarian list as a possible candidate.
Noticing a couple diversity ideas like Canadian (EWC) and Brazilian (EWZ) ETF's acting very well and looking like buyers will continue to buy on the summer pullbacks to good supports.
Some of the solar stocks look ok still for a patient trader who uses proper money management techniques to protect those investments from surprises....
What is going on with AZN?
GM finally broke below $1 this morning... Things look like they are in motion for a very interesting next week....
11:39AM update-- I decided to cover my recent trades and stand on the sidelines going into early next week. I forgot my vacation is coming up and GM issues are coming to a head... While I am not overly bearish yet, I have been trading for over 20 years and can recognize when I see no problems and things are "too rosy" that is when I get my head handed to me. I just get this feeling the market might be getting ready to surprise us. This has been a very good month for me with only two losing trades so I don't want to tempt fate. I will stand aside for the weekend and rethink new strategies how to proceed under various scenarios.