Monday, March 2--
(see end of February for most recent updates...)
Basically... am staying Short or still willing to sell into rallies to get short for now....
Today was another follow-through key technical support taken out...
S&P critical breakdown today. Interested in buying on a pullback ETF's that specialize in shorting Nasdaq and Russell as another recent new idea.
2:45PM update-- The market cannot go straight down forever without some kind of a rebound. Yesterday could not sustain a rebound but today the market makers appeared determined to establish a more convincing support floor to attract buyers and motivate some Shorts to cover. We are in the March/June futures contracts rollover period where options and futures contracts will expire later this month. This might explain some of today's rebound. We will continue to track any further advance to see at some point in March where would be a safer place to establish a new Short position. As we have said in our live classes the past two days that DT Matrix has run out of new Short ideas on almost all the room-sizes accept maybe a PB room. That usually is an indication a rebound is needed to be able be able to re-create new Short setups in a Bear market. We will sit back and patiently wait for these Shorts to establish themselves. Odds still favor-- no matter how strong a rebound-- that we still are in a very clear Bear market no matter how high or how deceptively strong a rally like today can appear. The news keeps getting worse; layoffs continue to expand. We are not afraid to sell a good one or two week rally still if given the correct sell setups. Go rally go!!!! We will short later.
11AM-- So far it looks like we only had a one day rally and the downtrend has since continued. Friday also appears to be a downtrend continuation. The Nasdaq 100 looks very much vulnerable as it pushes lower to test its November lows, one of the few indexes that has yet to take out that critical low. Odds favoring the downtrends continues all day and the Nasdaq is only finally catching up with the other overall weakness.
1:25PM-- Nasdaq Composite is the latest to officially take out its November daily low. Odds are increasing now Bears can keep more control than Bulls who are trying to bottom pick. Anticipating this area can work lower now. Nasdaq 100 is the next one to watch for it to finally break its Nov lows.
1:20PM-- today the market finally is showing it can push upward in a good way. With options and futures expiring later in March it makes a lot of sense as Shorts eventually have to lock in some profits.. and many do have some very good profits!
We want to see the market rally as best as it can and they we will use this rally-- at the right time and price-- over the next two to three weeks to try to find quality Short setups to trade if at all possible.
We are entering our third week of a rebound rally in the US stock market. Yesterday was a very strong up day. Because the Federal government-- FED and Treasury-- have announced even more new trillions of dollars of programs the past two weeks designed to create liquidity and confidence in the market we are now inclined to anticipate more follow-through buying on dips now that should extend gains beyond three weeks. If we are to get a good pullback it may not happen until early April. The Bulls are in control for the a while longer while the Bears have been served notice to be a little more careful.
(03-10-2009 01:20 PM)Marc Rinehart Wrote: [ -> ]March 10th-- 1:20PM-- today the market finally is showing it can push upward in a good way. With options and futures expiring later in March it makes a lot of sense as Shorts eventually have to lock in some profits.. and many do have some very good profits!
We want to see the market rally as best as it can and they we will use this rally-- at the right time and price-- over the next two to three weeks to try to find quality Short setups to trade if at all possible.
Friday, March 27-- Sorry we had to cancel yesterday mornings class. I could not be here to lead it. We hit a deer the night before and we had to take my wife's car in to the body shop. See you all Monday or Tuesday next week.
So far today looks like a day-trade profit-taking day, downward bias.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009-- Looks like we will finish March and the first '09 quarter in a good strong rebound after yesterday's one day decline!