Monday, Feb 2, 2009--
We are going to focus more on earnings setups and continue to remain "
defensive" in our new trades early this week until we can see some better bottoming or buying convictions.
Will update more as information comes in....
12:1OPM update-- Accident and Health Insurance companies one of the few things doing 'ok' today... We talked about stocks like HUM and WLT. Maybe we can check others out tomorrow like CVS, HS, AET. Today's market continues to be slightly defensive and in a reasonably narrow trading range for day traders. Not much action to report today.
MONDAY 3:03PM UPDATE-- Last Friday I once again returned to my belief that the DJ Industrial Average was going to head lower and test the last low before it would head higher as many of us thought might be setting up. The door is still open for this as our first trading day in February has taken the DJ Industrial below 8,000 again. The longer we stay below 8,000 the greater the odds are a test in Feb of 7,500 is not totally a dream, or unrealistic idea anymore.
(01-30-2009 12:40 PM)Marc Rinehart Wrote: [ -> ]While, we have a few moments before January trading is over. What do we do now? I say watch very closely to see what happens the first three trading days of February. The way I feel right now it wouldn't surprise me we end up at 7,500 in the Dow Industrial sooner rather than later. We still have a lot of earnings coming out next 2-3 weeks. It doesn't look like Wall Street is getting optimistic about the rest of this earnings season.
Tuesday, Feb 3, 2009 Update--
Today has been a steady "up" day in the stock market. Very aggressive 'contrarian' traders may consider buying yesterday and today Index lows, but conservative traders will have to wait to see if any rally can push these indexes back about last weeks highs. If this were to happen then the odds of a larger trading range being established would be the best bet. For now, we remain "defensive" until proven differently.
'Schools' stocks (COCO, EDU, ESI, APOL, etc) have continued to perform will in January and into Feb. Some healthcare, Drugs, Biotech, Health related insurance companies seem to be picking up a little bit of positive buying.
Terra Nitrogen (TNH) is on a tear this past month and doing very well.
Late Afternoon Update--
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) made a 'mini-breakout' today on an hourly chart. Odds favor it can inch a little higher... so long as it does not retrace now below 103-100 in the next two weeks.
Myriad Genetics (MYGN) had a breakout today. It should be monitored for a dip as it is a good candidate for a trend continuation in the near-future.
Jay-- noticing AutoZone (AZO) continues to hold well the 125 support. It is extending its rally now but could still be monitored for a short-term pull-back buy.... if you were to trail a very close trailing stop to protect new positions. Still a little risky near the tops but it continued to hold on a controlled pullback since you first mentioned it last month.
Jim-- that SC in Goldman Sachs continues to hold steady today after the sharp day-trade pullback before noon. So far, so good.
Wednesday, Feb 4, 2009
10:00AM Early-Morning Update-- Anticipating more a positive action in market today. Day-traders might benefit by a net bias to the upside today.... I will post some recent trades triggered yesterday and today here shortly so we can continue to monitor their progress...
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Follow-up tracking on recently triggered Trade Setups in progress....
Goldcorp (GG) in SA room (3:30pm captured image posted)
Goldman Sachs (GS) in SB room (6:00pm captured image posted)IBM (IBM) in SB room (6:00pm captured image posted)
Thursday, Feb 5, 2009, Early Morning Update--
Looking like today is starting off with a net down bias. Day-traders may favor the downside opportunities this morning.... Gold/Silver holding steady, but that is about all I can see for this morning.
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1:04 PM Early Afternoon Update-- The market has reversed after being weak mildly weak this morning and now it is holding mildly net up and steady.
Mastercard (MA) is very strong and active today....
The Goldman Sachs (GS) trade talked about in our live class a couple days ago, shown in the previous post from yesterday, has exceeded its target and continues to hold steady.
Friday, Feb 6, 2009, 11AM-- Maybe the major indexes will hold here. We are seeing some of the more respected companies starting to perform better off their daily basing bottom patterns.
Today is an upday. Aggressive contrarians could consider being more buy ideas. Most all we have identified in our live classes this week, or mentioned in recent previous posts are doing well right now. It is looking more and more like we should have a few Longs in our portfolio now, if we don't already.
Tuesday, Feb 10, 2009, 4PM Update--
Today did not start off to be a bad day. Around 10:30AM we first began to recognize the bias was shifting from neutral to down for today. A short time later in our live class we a sudden wave of selling and we issued immediately a Bear warning for Bulls to be careful.
With a difficult earning season in progress and fluff going on in Washington, it makes it doubly hard to want to buy anything. Selling into rallies seems to continue to work well.
I am convinced, unless something more dramatic and innovative happens in Washington, the US stock market indices will eventually, finally take out their Nov/Dec lows to keep this Bear market decline going even further.
Many of us were hoping we could get a decent "counter trend rally" first... but at this point... who knows?
Thursday, Feb 12, 2009, 9:34AM Update--
It appears the stock market is finally ready to work lower now. This morning the DJ Industrial finally took out 7,800 and looks ready to migrate down to last Novembers 7,500 area previous low.... The S&P 500 still has not broken 800.
Bulls beware... Bears may have more conviction right now!
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11:45AM Update-- My one friend reminded me it was Thursday and Thursdays statistically have a pattern of covering gaps.... so don't be surprised if the market can keep drifting back up into positive territory, he says. So far it looks like he is right.
My concern is the way the market continues to work really hard to gain anything but can drop lower so very quickly with very limited effort. That suggests to me what many are thinking is a basing pattern on daily index charts really is nothing more than a prolonged pause before the downtrend eventually returns. It makes you want to keep be willing to look for Short setups the next six weeks on any rallies... cuz it still is a market that you just don't trust.... yet.
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3:31PM-- nice little push at end of day... Shorts covering for today.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average did drop as previous post suggested and is now testing 7,500.
If the DJ Transportation index taking its November major low out yesterday is a hint what is to come with other indicies, one might want to remain defensive or stay longer in current Short trades?
The DJ Utility index now looks like it's breakdown yesterday makes it in a potential 'free-fall' drop now to the previous October 08 low.
The S&P looks like it isn't going to stop until it hits it's November lows.
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Thursday Afternoon Update (2:45PM) -- Recent Trades will be added at the bottom of this post. (
see below)
(02-12-2009 10:38 AM)Marc Rinehart Wrote: [ -> ]Thursday, Feb 12, 2009, 9:34AM Update--
It appears the stock market is finally ready to work lower now. This morning the DJ Industrial finally took out 7,800 and looks ready to migrate down to last Novembers 7,500 area previous low.... The S&P 500 still has not broken 800.
Bulls beware... Bears may have more conviction right now!
4PM-- Below are several more recent Shorts in progress....
Here are a few more recent traders.....
Today the Dow Jones Industrial officially takes out its November low... I have posted many DT short setups this past week because I believe many are working and may continue to work right now. I said in our live class I am a conservative trader but for now (earlier this week to now) I am in a trading short aggressive mode... means I am willing to go short without thinking to much and am willing to stay short without thinking too much. I just use aggressive money management techniques and whatever the market gives I take. I just don't want to buy now.
The Bear market decline may be ready to continue now? I will take what I can get at this point and stay short until my aggressive trailing stops take me out.