Wednesday, Dec 3, 2008--
Sorry for the delay starting a new thread this month. Been a little under the weather and slowly catching up....
Trying to figure out this market right now is tough. Biggest issue this month-- will Washington loan billions to the Automotive industry?
Common sense says they have to loan the the money. If not, try envisioning how to trade a worsening economic downturn.
Wednesday, Dec 10, 2008--
For three days now one of the better performers has been the Water Transportation group. We discussed in our live class stocks like DRYS yesterday and side they are looking more attractive in the near-term. Interestingly they continue to rebound more each day after hitting very low prices recently.
Interestingly some Coal, Gold, Iron/Steel, Oil Well/Equipment stocks are also rebounding... as if they are trying to suggest we might be finding some possible near-term bottoms for this year? Will be tracking some of these stocks this month for pullback dips to see if we can get any quick new trade ideas.
PS- Just a little observation.... The market seems to have lost some of its normal dynamics so it will require greater patience and and discipline to trade it effectively. It seems to go in spurts and then gets extremely quiet. If you are not careful you can get suckered into the active stages only to see it totally die for a prolonged period after that. When I see this kind of market behavior, I make adjustments... and only try for the more conservative entries, focusing more on the top-quality stronger support or resistance areas for trading....more than trying to ride any momentum type of setup. Momentum and breakout setups tend to fail more in this kind of a market. By making adjustments in trading, this will keep you in safer positions where, if you are patient and manage the trade properly, you will tend to have greater success. Chasing stocks that seem to be moving in this market is a more dangerous idea.
PSS- For what it is worth, I voted in the above survey that I felt the stock market would have more upside than downside in the month of December. (call it a vastly oversold, end of a daily wave 3, beginning of a daily wave 4 up mild and slow type of a "Christmas Rally" behavior idea... smile, boy am i wordy... but u get the point.)
If the Senators vote down the Automotive industry loan, I will change my vote to more downside this month than upside.
Tuesday, Dec 16, 2008 Update (FED Day Watch)-- While the Senate did not pass the auto loan bill, the next day the Treasury Dept announced it will work with the auto industry until the new administration and congress take power. The market has acted more stable after that announcement.
Now, today, we are dealing with a 2:15PM FOMC announcement. Will they cut rates further and what else will be announced. I said in our live class it appeared the market was setting up for more rally today and as of 1:30pm it still has the feel of wanting to migrate higher today.
Two stocks came out with earnings today that have been positive. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Best Buy (BBY) still are doing well today.
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3:10PM UPDATE-- Fed lowered interest rates and stock market continues to work higher. I think we might have some evidence of a little bit more of a "Christmas Rally" in progress now. I feel good being net long now. I covered hedge spread and am net long now.
Friday, Dec 19, 2008- Maybe this is pre-mature... but with President Bush announcing a temporary loan to GM and Chrysler the stock market has a slightly better, "positive feel" to it. It is as if a sigh of relief is being felt.
The market continues to seem to lack consistent bullishness tendencies, but I think it is developing a little more up potential to migrate higher in the near-term. We would be watching for it to establish a more identifiable large trading range from the Oct and Nov highs to the Oct and Dec lows on various daily index charts. There is limited resistance, for example, in the DJ Industrial average if it can start to migrate above 9,000. The upper part of that index has a resistance range around 9,500 to 9,700.
Like I said earlier this week I am no longer hedged (equally weighed up and down) but am now more net long position... so I hope my chartist impressions are correct. I really am feeling "some (bullish) love" may be coming our way before Christmas. (... let's just say would be grateful for whatever rally might show up... it has been a tough year and we could use a little cheer before the holiday!)
In our live classes we have been identifying various groups and some stocks we are focusing on. We will continue to follow-up on those stocks in next weeks class.
If you would like to be a part of these discussion, feel free to join us at the following link, or save this link as a bookmark for future classes....
REAL-TIME DYNAMIC TREND CLASS LINK, chick here and bookmark it
URL="http://metastock.acrobat.com/dynamictrend"
Monday, Dec 22, 2008 (Market Update)- Today is starting out as a net short biased day.... I wish I could take back my post from last Friday. Late last week I got caught up in the positives I was seeing in the markets but today I am once again getting distracted by the lack of quality out there.
This market is worse than watching paint dry. I wish I could just take the next two weeks off and not look at the markets at all.
I am not as confident now about the markets potential to rebound significantly before Christmas. I might go back to hedging just so I can take a break and get my mind off trading for a couple weeks.
If I could take a two week end of the year break from trading the markets I think I would right now. Trading this market has gotten very exhausting and I need a break.
12:30PM MONDAY UPDATE-- I am tired of trading these markets and decided to close out my personal positions so I am 100% in cash for my account. I can now go and relax during this holiday season and prepare better for early 2009 trading. I am totally exhausted trying to figure these markets out and I need a break for a couple weeks. Again, I am in cash again because I am afraid the market now has a propensity to go lower and I am disappointed in its lack of follow-through. I don't care if it goes up or down now. I need a break from all this nonsense.
I want to wish you all a very merry Christmas and a joyous Happy New Year! Not many people will miss 2008 but we all have great hopes that 2009 will end up becoming a more rebound year! Take care... may God bless you all!
marc