Dynamic Trend Profile

November 2008 New Thread
Monday, Nov 3, 2008, 9:35AM--

With tomorrow being a critical national election with both the legislative and executive branches up for election, odds favor the next couple days being interesting trading days. We will be monitoring the trading action very closely to get a better feel of our future direction.

The US stock market has just opened and so far is holding in a very mild up open. For day-traders it is too early to tell what direction will trend the most today, or what the net bias is as of now.

Water Transportation and Airline groups seems to be showing some positive money flow this first day of trading for November. With the recent downtrend in energy prices, and the announced merger ok for Delta and Northwest late last week this industry is once again attracting more consistent buying interest worthy of consideration on any pullback or pause in the near-future. Some Trucking also holding well lately.

We should have employment numbers coming out later this week that might be alarming so be careful going into those numbers.

We will try to identify more things to watch for this week in our live class and will update this post here as we identify this information.

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4:35PM UPDATE-- Below are some additional things to watch for this week.... Former fellow Ohioan Dennis Gartman said, in CNBC show Fast Money, when asked how he would trade the election: "Don’t trade ahead of the election, be fully hedged."

The market action today reflects this sentiment as it was an extremely narrow trading range today.

There are a lot of earnings (close to 700) to be reported this week.

Monday: Earnings (Before)- ASF, AYE, ALVR, AMT, BLC, BRNC, COL, DRYS, GWR, Goodyear Tire (GT), KEI, MCY, MFA, MNTA, MFLX, NTE, NSTC, GAS, OSK, PEI, PMI, RDWR, SRP, SPG, SSYS, Sysco (SYY) ; (After)- APC, Automatic Data Processing (ADP), BDE, CRK, CRAY, CROX, DRRX, EDS, ERJ, EOG, EXTR, FST, HAIN, HCN, HLF, IBI, JCOM, LF, LOOK, MasterCard (MA), MHK, N, OTEX, OEH, VITA, OTTR, PLLL, PKY, POM, FACE, PBI, PPS, PFG, PRA, PL, RACK, RBC, RKT, SB, SNTS, SM, TLEO, TK, TKLC, TNS, TRID, Viacom (VIA); Economic- ISM Index

Tuesday: Earnings (Before)- Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), ACA, BIOS, CBF, CHD, EXC, DR, DNR, EMR, EXPD, FE, HW, HCP, HNT, HPY, HL, HOC, JEC, KALU, MGA, MVL, MYGN, NI, NWN, GLT, PER, PQ, PNW, PPL, RDC, JOE, TLM, THC, TEN, VNO, ZGEN... SAM; (After)- ANDE, NILE, BRE, CBM, CBL, EQY, FCH, GSX, HE, HLEX, HLS, IO, JKHY, KCP, ME, MKL, NHP, NLS, PZZA, PXD, TIE, UPL, USU, VTR, VSAT, VVUS, WTW, GB;Economic- Factory Orders; Other- ELECTION DAY

Wednesday: Earnings (Before)- MT, AGU, Ambac (ABK), CELL, CNP, CKP, CMS, CTSH, CGX, COCO, DVN, DLR, DTG, DUK, EE, ENZN, FWLT, GET, GGP, GM, GNA, WOLF, HSIC, HSP, IFLO, KIM, KSWS, LL, MMC, MBI, MHS, MF, OHI, NEWS, PKD, Polo Ralph Lauren (RL), POL, PWR, KGS, KWK, RDN, RAS, REV, Transocean (RIG), Sara Lee (SLE), Time Warner (TWX), Time Warner Cable (TWC), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), USM, VICL, WW, XTO; (After)- Activision Blizzard (ATVI), DOX, AEL, AHT, AEL, ALJ, AHT, BDN, CPE, CECO, CRL, Cisco Systems (CSCO), CNO, CCI, Dean Foods (DF), DCP, EGLE, EXM, FIC, FOE, GOK, GCA, GCOM, GDP, GXP, ROCK, HTZ, JJSF, KEG, LFG, LVS, LEAP, LPSN, LMIA, MMLP, MSSR, MDR, MEAS, MNT, MOVE, NFS, News Corp (NWS.A) , NVTL, OKE, OKS, PVA, PVR, SCI, SINA, BEE, SUN, TX, Tenet Healthcare (THC), THQI, UNTD, VMC, Whole Foods (WFMI), ZIPR; Economic- ADP Employment (Could be an eye opener), ISM Services

Thursday: Earnings (Before)- ABH, ACW, AER, AES, ABV, ANPI, AHR, ARD, ARCC, ARIA, AutoNation (AN), BRL, BZH, BVF, Blackstone (BX), BRS, CVC, CNQ, LSE, CRZO, FUN, DTV, CSK, CDL, CNSL, CEG, DM, DRQ, DYN, DUF, ELON, EP, RDEN, EPL, FNM, FLO, FTO, GLBC, GOL, GBX, HNR, HWK, HOS, ITWO, IKN, IMAX, IMCL, INCY, ISIS, JRCC, KG, LXP, MEND, MRT, Nasdaq OMX (NDAQ), NRP, NRF, OMX, OMG, OHB, PCAP, HK, PNK, PCG, HK, PG&E (PCG), ROLL, FRZ, SPP, SNN, SONS, SE, SFY, TEVA, Toyota Motor TM, TEL, UNT, VCI, VRX, VNDA, VG, WEN, WNR, WLK, WMB, WPZ, WWE, XOMA, YGE... Anheuser-Busch (BUD); PARL; (After)- AIRM, AIG, CAR, BEBE, BYI, BIO, BBI, CPKI, CBG, CEGE, LNG, STV, COGO, COSI, CVTX, CYCC, DAR, DLB, HILL, FMD, Fluor (FLR), FSYS, GOLF, FTI, FSYS, HALO, HANS, HPT, HTCH, IRF, JSDA, JUPM, KFN, MRX, MTD, MAA, MWY, NABI, NFG, NOA, Nvidia (NVDA), OPTV, Priceline.com (PCLN), PCR, PXP, POWR, PSA, Qualcomm (QCOM), RMD, SONE, SD, SAPE, SEP, SGY, TS, TMA, YSI, INT, XL, Walt Disney (DIS); Economic- Preliminary Productivity (Q3)... Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (this could be a bad report to watch), Same Store Sales

Friday: Earnings (Before)- CEP, AYR, Cooper Tire (CTB), DISCA, Ford (F), LNY, MEA, NAT, RRI, BID, TTI, THI, WR, Sprint Nextel (S), WR, WIN... Edison (EIX); (After)- Con Edison (ED), SALM; Economics- JOBS REPORT (non farm payrolls), pending home sales, wholesale inventories, consumer credit

Wednesday, Nov 5, 2008, 1:20PM Update--

It is the day after the election. We started off not too bad but hadve drifted lower since noon. It is tricky to figure out what the bigger picture holds next here in the next week or two. Mostly just observing now to figure out what is the next bigger move I can try to catch. Not sure right now. It looks like weakness today is not yet over and more downtrending is very possible (observation based on interpretation as of 1:23PM)

We had an extra class today as a post election special. Tomorrow is our last real-time class for this week. It won't be a super long class tomorrow... unless something happens before than. I have run out of ideas for this week.

I will be posting here if I ever see something more meaningful. With this post-elections results still being assimilated, we will be assessing new possible trends or ideas in the coming weeks based on potential future policy changes that might be forthcoming in the first quarter of next year.

If you would like to be a part of this discussion, please join us Thursday at the following link, or save this link as a bookmark for future classes....

REAL-TIME DYNAMIC TREND CLASS LINK, chick here and bookmark it

URL="http://metastock.acrobat.com/dynamictrend"

2PM UPDATE-- Weakness still exists for day traders trying to gauge how much longer to stay with today's day-trade activities... I am still willing to stay short today....

Wed, Nov 12, 2008, 9:19AM Pre-Market Update-- Looks like the weakness I pointed out late last week in our live class is continuing. We should have more downside today. We have mentioned in our real-time classes this week the bears still are in control so keep looking for DT short setups or hold off buying if bullish. My pre-market work suggests today will be another down day. We may continue to be down until we find out if the October lows in the various indexes are capable of holding this time.

Thurs, Nov 13, 2008, 12:56PM Update-- Odds are rapidly favoring a continuation of the weekly downtrend returning much sooner rather than later. The Nasdaq 100 just took out the October low and has no double bottom potential now. It is the weakness and leading in this decline. If it is a predictor for the Dow and S&P, things do not look so good for bulls to be trying to buy soon but bears would be inclined to stay short longer under this condition. This is a WARNING or an ALERT for those interested.... Definitely a concern if you wanted a bottom... I think your downtrends are going to work more now... PLEASE keep a serious eye on this and good luck with your shorts...

2:03PM *****ISLAND REVERSAL ALERT***** Update-- ... to break down so noticeably and then to reverse off that breakdown so quickly only an hour later opens the door for a possible small "island reversal" pattern. If this pattern continues and we do not close weak, tomorrow could be a temporary low in place where we would look to be buying for a least a one week rally.

3:38PM Update-- ... We have 20 minutes left in trading today and I would say someone doesn't want new lows yet! Since the government has its nose in everything else I would guess a plunge protection committee would be trying to contain this decline. Todays reversal after a quick charge at the lows of OCT is a clear evidence we will stay in a trading range for now. It may not be "the bottom" but it looks like it can be a bottom for the short-term.

4:12PM End-Of-Day Update-- ... I guess this is an example why we technicians say we get a breakdown we need the daily chart to close below the breakdown to confirm it. The very strong selling mid-day turned out to be a sucker move designed to get the shorts to think a major breakdown had occured. This is why I immediately posted about an hour later the Island Reversal pattern comment because for the downtrend to continue it would not have reversed like it did after just testing the lows. I still think our US market is not out of the woods yet but this buys you more time. It gives short-term traders a trading range to keep trying to trade. If your bullish it gives you still some hope that if we continue to "build a base" here (DJ Industrial, S&P, Nasdaq) we can eventually still have a sustainable rally by the end of the year or into the first quarter.... For now I would just be happy we still have a range to trade. The longer this range establishes itself the easier it will get to trade this month and next. If you never were able to lighten up on this massive decline in September and October this rebound today still gives you hope you might be able to someday recoup a little in the near-future and finally get a second chance someday to finally reduce longer-term exposure to this still very risky market. It has got to take months for all the fundamental problems we be corrected. There is no way we will be out of a bear market for months to come.

Like I said in our live class if I see anything at all, I will instantly update here in this forum. For about an hour things started to look ominous but we once again pulled out of our hat a nice reversal. Watch the October and November rebound highs now to see what happens if we get back up there. We still have some good resistance areas to overcome.

Thurs, Nov 13, 2008, 12:56PM Update-- The US market has opened a little weaker this morning and appears capable of staying weaker today. So far-- as of 20 minutes of trading-- it has not shown great weakness, more a downward direction is all...

I will update more in our Monday morning real-time class and then come back here later to updated here...

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Noon Update... below is comments from our real-time conversations... (some text is deleted make it easier to read and highlight key things discussed)
Dynamic Trend: (11/17/2008 08:46) Welcome to our Real-Time Applications class. We are back to starting at 10:00AM (NYT). To guide our discussion time, please type or any symbols you would like to review.
Dynamic Trend: (09:53) We will be starting about 15 minutes late today... around 10''15AM NYT... sorry for this delay...
Dynamic Trend: (09:56) Some things to watch for this week... Monday: Earnings Before: LOW, TGT, Earnings After: IMCL Eco: Industrial Production Other: Deutsche Bank/Goldman Sachs Gaming Investment Forum (2-day), Canaccord Adams Global Energy Conf. (3-days)Tuesday: Earnings Before: MDT, HD Earnings After: PSUN Eco: PPI, NAHB Survey, State Street Investor Confidence Index Other: TARP Oversight Hearing, Global Gaming ExpoWednesday: Earnings Before: BJ Earnings After: HOTT, LTD Eco: CPI, Housing Starts, FOMC MinutesThursday: Earnings Before: BKS, FRE,GME, PPC Earnings After: DELL, GPS, JCG Eco: Philadelphia Fed Survey, Leading Indicators Other: ECB Rate Meeting, Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting,, Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy HearingFriday: Earnings Before: ANN, HNZ
Dynamic Trend: (09:57) Some news this AM...
Dynamic Trend: (09:57) U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION REBOUNDS IN OCTOBER
Dynamic Trend: (09:57) Iraq agrees US three-year troop stay... US forces to remain until 2011]
Dynamic Trend: (09:58) Japan slips into recession... economy contracts 0.4% in third quarter
Dynamic Trend: (09:58) U.S. stock futures traded lower Monday on skepticism about the pledge from world leaders to tax less and spend more to help the world economy out of the funk that has led to stock prices dropping 40% this year. Economists at UBS said not much emerged from the meeting that hasn't already been stated.
Dynamic Trend: (09:58) Britain's banks led another downturn in London on Monday as prospects for the U.K. economy look further in doubt as home-sale prices continued to drop.
Dynamic Trend: (09:58) Citi to Cut 53,000 Jobs, Boosting Total to 20%
Dynamic Trend: (09:58) J.P. Morgan plans thousands of job cuts: report... Lay-offs also said coming from U.K.'s Wolseley, Experian
Dynamic Trend: (09:58) HSBC may cut 300-400 Hong Kong jobs by Monday
Dynamic Trend: (09:59) Royal Bank of Scotland is looking to cut 3,000 job
Dynamic Trend: (09:59) Fidelity to cut 1,700 jobs early next year as the world's largest mutual fund manager grapples with the effects of the market meltdown. ... New cuts will bring planned dismissals to roughly 7% of total workforce
Dynamic Trend: (09:59) Genworth Financial,GNW the Richmond, Va., financial-services provider, agreed in principle to acquire InterBank of Maple Grove, Minn., the companies said on Sunday. Genworth also applied to the U.S. Office of Thrift Supervision to enable it to become a savings-and-loan-holding company,
Dynamic Trend: (09:59) Unemployment Rate Will Peak at 7.5%: NABE... The unemployment rate was likely to peak at 7.5 percent by the third quarter of 2009, according to the survey. In the October poll, the jobless rate was seen topping out at 6.4 in the second quarter of next year.
Dynamic Trend: (10:00) GM to sell 3% Suzuki stake for $232 million
scott - cal: (10:01) Question: has the UAW made any statements? I have read anything, but didn't know if I missed something?
scott - cal: (10:02) ** have not read read ***
Dynamic Trend: (10:02) (sorry Scott, I have not read any UAW comments this morning... so do not know...)
Dynamic Trend: (10:02) Scroll above to see news items today.... and some things to watch for this week... To repeat earlier... we will start this class 15 minutes later, approximately 10:15ishAM this morning... sorry for the delay... Market is holding steady, somewhat quiet this morning.... nothing major
Dynamic Trend: (10:13) One Strategy This Week -- looking at to DJ Industrial looking like it has potential to work lower.... watching 8,000 support area to see if it can hold again this week.... would this be an aggressive buy area? Nasdaq 100 continues to hold on its lows area... will it these lows this week could determine if we get some kind of a rebound during options expiration week? Or, will we continue to see further breakdowns near-term?
Dynamic Trend: (10:15) Updated US Stock Market Day-traders Observations (10:15AM) -- stock market has better odds of working a little lower today until it can get to better supports (last weeks lows, for example) and we will then see if twe can hold there... will this be abounce back up support area this time is what we will watch for... aggressive bulls will be focusing on this
Bruce (Mich.): (10:28) ADM has been behaving well. Could we take a look?
Jim: (10:29) YES AFTER EARNINGS
scott - cal: (10:30) friday's Nat-Gas weekly report as expected, iventory up over previous week, production up over last week, inventory less than last year, but higher than 5 year average http://tinyurl.com/yujn4e
scott - cal: (10:33) UNG, might be setting up double bottom
allan: (10:41) DYN
Bruce (Mich.): (10:41) For now, I'll keep this one on my watchlist.
Jim: (10:43) GOOG flirting with 300 level again...
Bruce (Mich.): (10:50) OK, will do.
scott - cal: (10:53) if history repeats, Nat-Gas Inventories should peak in the next few weeks
Bruce (Mich.): (10:54) It is expected to be cold in Michigan for the whole week, lows in the 20s at night.
scott - cal: (10:56) Norther California weather has been wacky - 80 degrees in San Francisco - That's hotter than in the summer.
allan: (11:07) thanks
Jim: (11:10) Acton on GM this week should be a catalyst. In action a catalyst as well- to down side
Jim: (11:11) right now a good lace for straddles/ strangles at the se key levels...
Jim: (11:12) clf
Jim: (11:13) BIDU crushed today-- similar space as GOOG
Jim: (11:13) I am bearish on GOOG on good bounce
scott - cal: (11:19) don't know but can check
scott - cal: (11:19) in the 40's in Washington & Oregon
Jim: (11:19) This week will be first cold snap in 20's at nite..
Bruce (Mich.): (11:20) The Natural Gas analysts keep a close eye on the upper mid West, especially, Chicago.
Jim: (11:20) I would not buy GM- eventually I believ sharehlders will get wiped out but company will survive somehow
Jim: (11:21) Very important company...
scott - cal: (11:21) strong arguements on both sides of bail out, especially for long term viability
Bruce (Mich.): (11:21) The Wall Street pros are watching the GM preferreds. GM also makes good moeny overseas, made $1 billion in China
scott - cal: (11:21) bailout does not address UAW & heath care costs
Jim: (11:22) common shares are at risk. Perhaps preferred/convertible's and bonds will be OK
scott - cal: (11:22) Germany is looking at possible bail out of Opel (GM subsidiary)
Bruce (Mich.): (11:22) Last UAW contract will cut new hire wages to the $14 - $16 Area, competitive with Japan transplants.
allan: (11:22) obama will bailout the autos he said so on 60 minutes last nite
Jim: (11:23) GM may not have that much time- action neede now.
Bruce (Mich.): (11:23) Some people are saying if GM makes it to late in '10, they will start to get going.
scott - cal: (11:24) GM retiree heath $3.3B/year care transfer to UAW
Bruce (Mich.): (11:24) Ford may have ot loan GM money, to keep the supplier base in tact.
scott - cal: (11:24) in 2010
Jim: (11:24) watchin for a long trade in CLF
Jim: (11:25) If market rallys I would go with it
allan: (11:25) mark cuban in TROUBLE
allan: (11:30) why is BAIDU dumping?
allan: (11:46) stock class today right?
Jim: (11:53) nice looking ''W'' bottom could be forming for a upside trade..
MIKE (CHI): (11:56) HI
Bruce (Mich.): (11:57) Thanks for yur help today. Good luck.
anoop: (11:57) hopefully i should i have my own version downloaded by tomorrow or day after
Jim: (11:57) Options expiry this friday as well- position squaring usually Tues/weds..
scott - cal: (11:58) have a good day everyone
Dynamic Trend: (12:01) noon update-- day-trading momentum is shifting... selling pressure has been reduced and more buyers appear to be coming back. Key is can we continue to hold the bottoms on our major US indexes. IF we are going to have a chance to rally it will be at these areas, in general, and maybe options expiration could be one reason for a possible rebound ... i think the buyers are capable of taking this market a little higher now today because we are holding at the lows... and would be interested in being a buyer for this after noon... unless it gives up the buying after around 1 to 2 pm...
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12:30PM Monday Update-- Market still is holding well. It looks like buyers are capable or interested in returning to the market this afternoon at these lows.

4:15PM Monday End-Of-Day Close Update-- Once again the market reversed back down after the NY lunch hour break and narrow range traded at the lows of today where it broke those lows the last 15 minutes of trading. It looks like no bull willing to commit to buying yet more than an hour or two. We continue to hold at or near the daily DJ Industrial, S&P and Nasdaq lows. As of now we have yet to see strong buying conviction.

We got this emailed letter from GM this morning that was interesting. Since it relates to what is going on in the economy I felt we should share it with you... (I put bold on text that needs to stand out when we read this so we understand the issues better.)

"You made the right choice when you put your confidence in General Motors, and we appreciate your past support. I want to assure you that we are making our best vehicles ever, and we have exciting plans for the future. But we need your help now. Simply put, we need you to join us to let Congress know that a bridge loan to help U.S. automakers also helps strengthen the U.S. economy and preserve millions of American jobs.

Despite what you may be hearing, we are not asking Congress for a bailout but rather a loan that will be repaid.

The U.S. economy is at a crossroads due to the worldwide credit crisis, and all Americans are feeling the effects of the worst economic downturn in 75 years. Despite our successful efforts to restructure, reduce costs and enhance liquidity, U.S. auto sales rely on access to credit, which is all but frozen through traditional channels.

The consequences of the domestic auto industry collapsing would far exceed the $25 billion loan needed to bridge the current crisis. According to a recent study by the Center for Automotive Research:

• One in 10 American jobs depends on U.S. automakers
• Nearly 3 million jobs are at immediate risk
• U.S. personal income could be reduced by $150 billion
• The tax revenue lost over 3 years would be more than $156 billion

Discussions are now underway in Washington, D.C., concerning loans to support U.S. carmakers. I am asking for your support in this vital effort by contacting your state representatives.

Please take a few minutes to go to www.gmfactsandfiction.com, where we have made it easy for you to contact your U.S. senators and representatives. Just click on the "I'm a Concerned American" link under the "Mobilize Now" section, and enter your name and ZIP code to send a personalized e-mail stating your support for the U.S. automotive industry.

Let me assure you that General Motors has made dramatic improvements over the last 10 years. In fact, we are leading the industry with award-winning vehicles like the Chevrolet Malibu, Cadillac CTS, Buick Enclave, Pontiac G8, GMC Acadia, Chevy Tahoe Hybrid, Saturn AURA and more. We offer 18 models with an EPA estimated 30 MPG highway or better — more than Toyota or Honda. GM has 6 hybrids in market and 3 more by mid-2009. GM has closed the quality gap with the imports, and today we are putting our best quality vehicles on the road.

Please share this information with friends and family using the link on the site.

Thank you for helping keep our economy viable.

Sincerely,



Troy Clarke"

Wed, November 19, Daily Update -- It still appears the US stock market is on hold and continuing to trade "defensively" (more downside potential it seems than upside currently being suggested) until further key economic issues such as auto industry bailout or how the credit crisis continues to effect the economy. If we factor in my intuition I have to tell you the truth, I continue to have bad vibs about what I am seeing develop on charts. I am seriously hoping and praying that the market will prove me wrong and rally at least one more time before or soon after Thanksgiving. The longer it takes now to get some kind a rally, the greater the risks things will continue to get worse before they get better.

I got 100% in cash in August but have tried several times to pick places to trade since. I continue to look for a place to get Long, and have a plan for making a little money if the market ends up going lower from here... but at this time I still need further insights what is going to be the next bigger move to try and catch. I would like to buy more than sell, but so far I still am not impressed nor willing to step to the plate and pick this bottom. We may be close, but no cigar yet, so to speak.

Thursday, Nov 20 Update --

Effective today I am giving up the idea of picking a bottom to buy. It just is not worth the risks.

A rally before Thanksgiving is a "suckers rally."

Options expiration is tomorrow, followed by a short Thanksgiving holiday. Volume should remain low and bullish tendencies limited.

More damage is coming.