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Trading Tracking System Modification


Purpose

1) To provide a means of facilitating and managing the movement and tracking of trades, from first conception, to trade closeout.
2) To provide an easy alert system for trades under consideration.
3) To capture for later analysis all trades and trade considerations.
4) To provide a framework for an automatic trading system, based on rules and parameters of the DynamicTrend system.

Overview

This modification is an extension of the Watch file that was added to the DynamicTrend system recently. While this Watch list was a good first step, there is still the need to segregate trades among themselves and yet save the information for later analysis. In the Watch file currently, a trade can only exist, or be deleted. With this modification, a trade can exist in various states and branches along a decision tree. In this model, different branches are represented by different files that hold a given trade, and the decision points map directly to processes that occur in actual trading.

The attached diagram represent both a dataflow diagram and a state diagram for a given trade record. Currently, the Watch file does capture basic information of where it came from and what were various settings were at the time of capture. What it does not show is various states of a trade in our analysis and execution. For example, we don’t know, by looking at a given record, if we felt the trade should be entered, or if it has already hit it’s trigger point, or if we are just tracking a trade in progress. This confusion could be addressed by having a note field on each record, where we could note our thinking, or by transcribing the information into other tracking or portfolio systems. But by having it here, in separate files, we can then have one click movement of all our information.

Files

In the diagram, the yellow boxes represent files or screens that already exist in the DynamicTrend system. The additional clear boxes represent additional files that contain trade records, similar to the Watch file, but with a few more fields. Each file’s title implies what it is used for, but I will give a more detailed definition later on. Most lines represent the movement of a trade record from one file to another; that is, the adding of the record to the destination file, and the deleting of the record from the source file. Any record movement should be accomplished by a click of some fashion (select record and button, or right click on record). Any additional data fields should be information available in the environment, such as date and time, current stock price, etc., so no additional typing should be required. These additional fields will be listed later on.

Any lines that point to the Profile screen, or Trade Balance screen do not indicate any movement of data. These lines just represent the lookup of information at the present time, using the current stock symbol of the record currently selected. Lines that are not drawn include a line indicating the export of any file of trades (all files) to a delimited file for analysis by a spreadsheet program. There also needs to be some sort of purge function for the Rejected, Non-Triggered, and Completed files, since these files will only grow via normal system use. Both the export function and purge function should have some sort of record filtering. (i.e. date range, trade type, etc.)

Decision Types

The first decision point is within the Watch file. Here, we will decide if a trade is ready to be accepted for activation, once it hits its trigger point, or if we should reject the trade all together, or watch the trade a little longer. Note that in activation, consideration should be made for long positions already above the trigger price, and short positions below their trigger point. (i.e. should one be warned, since they will automatically trip into the Active trades file?)

The second decision point is within the Setup file. This is, in essence, an alert file that could be monitored by the system. Once a stock hits its trigger point, it should automatically send a signal (sound, blinking, e-mail, etc.) and moved to the Active Trade file. Note that this is the point one could actually place a trade, with most brokers, with an activation trigger. The move to the Non Triggered file would be a manual process that represents canceling of a trade that has not been triggered. Actually, this could also be automatic, base on order type, such as Good for the Day type orders. (i.e. date and time would force a move to the Non Triggered file)

The third file, the Active Trade file, actually is a mirror of some or all of an actual trading account, and serves as the complete basis of a paper trading system. Here, most actions can be automatic, via a stock hitting its goal or limit. The system should allow for the manual closing out of a trade early, or the modification of the stop price, or goal price. A partial closing of a position would be nice, and in a manual closeout, the price, quantity, date or time might have to be adjusted. In all cases, the trade, or the part closed should be moved to the completed file.

Note that by the addition of a status column (Active or Non-Active), the Watch file and Setup file could be combined, as well as the Rejected file and Non-Triggered file. From a programming point of view, the reduction in files would be offset by future complexity in automatic monitoring of the Setup file. I gave this a lot of thought, and concluded it would be better, in the long run, to have two separate files. I defer this decision to the programmer.

Additional Fields

Here, I would like to define each file’s purpose, and the additional fields each should get. Note that each file will keep all the field of its source file. Also, all records, starting with the Watch file records, could use a notes field(s), where any free form text could be added at any time. Maybe an automatic time stamp on any note added would be useful.

It seems that each file should get a date/time stamp when it was moved to that file, as well as the current price of the stock at that time. Instead of repeating this comment for each file, I will just state it here.

Watch

This file will stay as it is now in the DynamicTrend system with the following exception. Records that are not of any current use, but which might be of later interest for analysis will be moved to the Rejected file via some sort of click. Any records ready as a trade should be move to the setup file via click. Consideration should be made to allowing modification of any trigger or exit price as well as quantity to use for a trade.

Reject

As stated above, this file represented trades that are not of current interest, but might want to be referenced in the future for historical purposes.

Setup

This file represents trades that are in a ‘Setup’ state, that is, they are ready to be put in place as a trade, once the stock hits the trigger price. If a stock is already past its trigger price, it should be time stamped, and move immediately to the Active file. Note that a trigger preference should be defined, on a record basis, which says if it is a ‘pass through’ type trigger, or a ‘lower to/raise to’ type trigger. This might be a future modification.

Non Trigger

This file represents trades that were ready to be triggered, but never were. They are saved here for future historical reference. The pruning process, out of the Setup file, is a manual process, but could be automatic via some sort of system preferences. Like the Reject file and Completed Trades files, some sort of purging will have to be done from time to time.

Active

This represents current open trades.

A future enhancement might be the addition of a Date/Time limit field. This field, if extended back to the Watch file and seeded from the Matrix - room size value, could activate the exit of the trade, just as the stop or goal limit does with the price.

Complete

This represents any trade, or part of a trade, that was active at one time, but is no longer.

In addition to the date/time and price stamp appended to each record, a flag representing how the record was closed would be useful. i.e. Goal hit, Stop Limit, or Manual close. Also, a flag of whether the quantity was partial of full at this close. It might be useful to calculate the actual gain or loss in this trade, both the price and gross dollars, as well as the # of days open. This would simplify performance analysis on this file. A future enhancement might also be the inclusion of commission costs.

Future Enhancements

Adding these files and function eliminate most of the mechanical steps we now go through, and allow more time to review the Profile and Trade Balance screens, as well as analyze results of our completed trades.

Ideally, we could have system wide default parameters that would automatically execute any manual steps left. Such steps would be the automatic activation of any watch file record, the automatic movement of non-triggered records, and the saving of the Matrix screening settings. The Matrix screen settings could be saved, by name, along with a schedule (date and time frequency) of which time to run. This would automatically fill the trade hopper into the Watch list file to start the process.

In addition, since we may have multiple criteria that we could save by name, this name could be added to all trade records, thus allowing us to treat this one set of trade files, as multiple watch lists/trading accounts.

RW
Marc,

This sounds great, do you think something like this is actually possible...or a good idea that is unlikely to happen?

The ability to track performance based on user selected criteria/filters and strategies will go a long way to instilling confidence in DT. In addition I believe it would encourage folks to experiment with different ways to use DT in various market phases to enhance performance.

I have been manually testing DT with a variety of strategies and filters in addition to the "recommended" techniques but it is hard work and very time consuming. Your suggestions would make the process much easier.

My goal is to incorporate my non-DT trading sector/group analysis into my DT base strategy but so far it has been a real challenge. Although your suggestions will not have a direct effect on this process it may help. There have been suggestions in other posts by DT staff that sector/group enhancements are in the works. If both your suggestions and the sector/group enhancements become a reality DT will be truly the best equities trading system by far.

Thanks for taking the time and effort to start this process, I hope it comes to fruition.

donv

Quote:Marc Rinehart

Trading Tracking System Modification

Purpose

1) To provide a means of facilitating and managing the movement and tracking of trades, from first conception, to trade closeout.
2) To provide an easy alert system for trades under consideration.
3) To capture for later analysis all trades and trade considerations.
4) To provide a framework for an automatic trading system, based on rules and parameters of the DynamicTrend system.
Marc,

Thanks for this contribution. It looks like a definite improvement to me -- and, as for the added complexity, I think it is manageable.

What I would really like to see is a system that can monitor the overall performance, month by month, of the DT trade setups. This would be, I think, equivalent in some way to the "Results" section on the website. However, if it were built into the "Watch" section -- as you seem to be proposing -- it would enable users to create an overall track record based on particular types of trades.

I personally would find the ability to have a regularly updated, statistical database of "hits" and "misses" extremely valuable.

Jeff
Hi Don and Jeff,

Thanks for the nice comments and suggestions. First, I don't want to take credit for someone elses idea or hard work. The original post above is from a customer who-- he and I talked in great detail about a shared vision we both have for a future utility program we wished could be built into our software. Unfortunately, I don't remember is name, but did show his initials at the bottom of the post. His idea was posted here in hope it could help stimulate other creative ideas how one could envision such a program (routine, utility, whatever you want to call it) functioning.

I think, with enough input from differing sources, we really could see a very powerful addition built into Dynamic Trend software. I do think it is a very doable and noble goal. It is something I have dreamed about for years, but have struggled trying to get conceptually out of my brain into a usable idea.

Jeff, my personal goal would be to develop something different than what has ever been developed. I want to see a system developed that totally tracks trade setups under conditions we want to monitor-- i.e., alert me to when the setup gets lower risk, or a more proper or improved risk/reward, monitoring it from once triggered or even why not triggered, to helping me manage the trade using several different types of entry or exit trailing stop strategies, into a program that would keep track of everything done for a personal trading account record. I would like to see something like three different modes developed-- very aggressive, aggressive, and conservative for three distinct trading strategies. When the market is uncertain, I will be more cautious in my entries and more aggressive in my exits. When the market is dynamic and trending, I want to be more conservative and try to use a trading strategy to help me stay in longer, help me manage a longer-term type pyramiding trade strategy. Depending on the mode I selected would determine how the program helps me track, impliment and manage that trade setup. I would like to see some kind of a strategic note taking capability which would allow me to keep track of trading ideas, strategies, thoughts made during the course of finding and tracking ideas until no longer a concern. I would like a system that allows one to flag or unflag priorities, or to change easily the order of new stock symbol priorities I am monitoring most closely, for example. It might be nice to have this system track hot groups and sectors as they change-- today, the past weekly or monthly changes, another example. I could go on and on... but I think this covers the gist of key ideas I would like to see developed. Hopefully in coming weeks others can share their ideas.

I do feel confident something fruitful and productive can come of this discusson. That is one reason why I started this post. That is my dream too.

Best wishes, and hope you have have a very joyous New Year 2006!

Very sincerely, Marc
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