Dynamic Trend Profile

We had some nice energy plays in the swing rooms today. OIH KWK TDW etc.

Sandy

I will be watching energy and metals again early next week. SB room has many oil and energy trades setting up ie: CHK

Any of you get the AEM TIE PD trades from the past 2 days? So far, so good. TIE is not for those that excite easily!!

UNP trade- took profits on shares today but those of you still in, there is another long set-up in DC room. Coming into the end of year I want tight stops on trades and of course the next few weeks gen. are lighter vol.

Happy holidays

Sandy

Don't know if any of you got into the energy field, ie: OIH when it trig. in the past week. This has worked out well but the orig. stop may have stopped you out if you used the stop on an intraday price move. I was asked if I close out a position based on the stop being "touched" or "market on close." I generally use market close along with other technicals, ie: Gann, fib.

Maybe Marc would like to share his approach.

Sandy

PS- Happy New Year to all of you and a big thank you to Tom and his team for providing us all with one incredible trading platform.

Sandy Wrote:Maybe Marc would like to share his approach.

Hi Sandy,

Good question.... I tend to just keep a very close eye on a trade as it closes in on a Stop area, but will not necessarily get out if the price hits that Stop or a Target. For better or worse, I still use my own judgement on this one, based mostly on how much money I have tied up on the trade, and how much money I can afford to lose if I do this....

Let me share with you another idea I have been playing with since this summer when trying to stay in a good trade longer....

One thing I like to do is monitor the current DT Profile for similar trades going on in nearby Rooms. If so, I might try to superimpose that trades parameters over the the existing trade taken. If there is any way I can try a "continuation" of a trade by combining trade parameters, I might try to do it, especially when there is good strength showing in a DT Profile/Trade Balance. Often though, this approach might require some position reduction adjustment to further reduce some of this increased new risk.

For example, when you look at the chart attached, you can see the current PA room trade parameters. I cut-and-paste the previous SD trade parameters (see gray colored variables) onto this chart. This helps me visualize ways of consider raising different trailing stops where maybe I still have added risk to this existing trade, but at the same time can use my trading judgement to help figure out ways to stay longer in that overall trade. In this OIH example, knowing there are two more higher room trades still ongoing makes that SD trade getting stopped out more encouraging to me to try my experimental combining adjacent room's trade parameters approach. When I look at the PA trade, for example, it gives me a realistic additional higher target to consider when I still see respectable DT Profile strength on higher rooms.

This is kind of harder to teach, and I would not recommend this to a novice, but I think if you play with using combined nearby room trade parameters within an existing good trade, you might find one way to incorporate what I call a smaller 'step-up' trailing stop. It is an approach I have been using in hopes of maximizing an existing good trade profit.

Again, it is currently hard for me to totally explain this idea as I am still working on developing it. The attached chart might help you better visualize this concept. I have been playing with this strategy with some success this past summer. The only problem I encountered was when sudden, unexpected overall market or group/sector strength changed dramatically, quickly its picture, I had not time to second guess and often just covered a position on my own when that happened. Somtimes I over-reacted and got out of really good trades, but often it saved my butt when the setup strongly continued its reversal. I am still looking for ideas, ways to better anticipate those occurrences before they happen. So far all I can figure out is you need to just keep a close eye on it.

Hope this one idea helps. I actually still like the OIH uptrend picture, and because I strongly suspect the PA target has good odds of being hit, upon further review I might have attempted a combined two room trade parameter with OIH to help me stay in this trade. Or I might have seriously considered doing partial trailing stops using a combination of both trade variables. I would, most probably still be in at last a small portion of the original trade position if using this technique? (Typically, I might keep 10 to 25% of a trade on just for this kind of a trade.)

Just an idea to play with....

Oh yes, as my mentioned earlier, yes, it is very possible an experienced trader could also combine some of his/her technical analysis understanding to this approach to further improve ones support and resistance understanding. If anything, it helps you gain confidence in your calculated guesswork. It could improve our odds a little bit more.

Hope this helps,

marc

Thank you and hopefully that helps some of the traders using DT. I took off 2/3 my psn. today (equity) and also had the Jan. 135 calls; bt. those last week for 1.60 and sold today for 5.20. I left 1/3 the position on since I agree that the target in PA may be fulfilled but will keep a close eye on this.

Sandy

Hi Sandy:

What were RF, Stars, RRR when you entered trade in SD & confirming rooms??

Thanks, Jon

the RF was 14; I do not use the stars since Tom has taught that RF overrides stars.

Sandy

Nem trig in DD yesterday; CMC in SB this morning.

Sandy

Sandy,

Here is a little trading idea I have been working on developing. It relates to the OIH PA room trade talked about earlier here. If I wanted to add back to a trade where some profits were taken, when you see a stock rise the previous high, above the initial target, next pullback consider adding back some of that position. Put a mental stop loss below the initial target; or in this case, maybe a little bit below the previous breakout high, which is now a support. (see attached chart) I wanted to mention this idea when it was more feasible earlier today, but couldn't find the time to post it. Sorry...

Marc

PS- Thanks, Sandy, for: DD NEM and SB CMC post. DD hit its target already! CMC just hit the initial target.
Nice calls! (no option trade pun intended.)

3:45pm, Wed, 11 Jan 2005 OIH trade follow-up--

The combining OIH PA and SD trade idea talked about earlier here worked well. Moving a trailing stop up now to either below today's daily chart day bar low, or below PA target area? (Best guess for today is today's low) Not quite ready to get stopped out of this trade for a profit, so keeping trailing stop still a little bit further away than might normally at this stage.

Attached are those two OIH updates, and current OIH Profile. (Review previous posts here to better understand this post.)

Best wishes,
Marc

Hi Marc,

Have been down w/flu so sorry for delay in response. Yes, CMC OIH NEM all worked and still working w/trailed stops. I also added GFI GG ENER and AEM on 1/10; all triggered in SA room. As far as option plays- have the Feb 135's on OIH; I generally go one month out and either slightly in the money or just out of the money- depends on the volatility of that equity. Also, I will not buy options with low OI. On all the rest I am holding the equity.

Dynamic Trend is incredible!! Also, for those of you who may get frustrated if the matrix does not generate a lot of trades for a day or two- it is telling you something. Be patient! The most important part of trading is asset protection and I find the matrix often keeps me out when I should be out.

Thank you for the terrific support of Tom and his great gang!

Sandy

Sandy,

Here is an update on the ideas mentioned in previous posts here. [SIZE="1"](Scroll down to see previous posts and better understand this logic.)[/SIZE]

Today I would be raising stops on this position.

DT OIH Profile still shows extreme strength on all its rooms. It is one reason for my still using this strategy. [SIZE="1"](see attached current Profile below)[/SIZE]

Hope this helps people see how, with a little creativity and money management experience, another way one can play with extending a swing trade beyond its target.

Best wishes,

Marc

Here is one my friend, Marty, just mentioned to me.... Anadarko Petroleum (APC) in DD room.
For trade details, see below attached Trade Balance, Profile, trade chart.

Take a look at Frontier Oil (FTO) on DD room.
Details shown below in attached current info below.

In the last post related to how to try and stay in this OIH trade longer, if we move our stop up to the higher level, we got stopped out of that part. If we raised the stop to the lower level, we are still totally in this current trade, and now we have a better pivot point low to place a safer stop. Am still doing research on ideas for better handling trailing stops, but this is best way I can explain the overall logic to people. I hope this has been helpful me continuing to followup on the initial idea since Sandy first mentioned it as a trade a while back. . . . - Marc

Marc Rinehart, Last post, 01-20-2006, 10:16 AM Wrote:[SIZE="1"]Sandy,

Here is an update on the ideas mentioned in previous posts here. [SIZE="1"](Scroll down to see previous posts and better understand this logic.)[/SIZE]

Today I would be raising stops on this position.

DT OIH Profile still shows extreme strength on all its rooms. It is one reason for my still using this strategy. [SIZE="1"](see attached current Profile below)[/SIZE]

Hope this helps people see how, with a little creativity and money management experience, another way one can play with extending a swing trade beyond its target.

Best wishes,

Marc

[/SIZE]

It's been a while since I updated the Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH). Noticing the trade setups working well in OIH Profile and good Trade Balance strength. For example, the PB room trade still in progress, holding above the initial breakeven already during the 'kick out' phase. It's initial breakeven target is at 162.26 price, and the target is 179.49 price. Attached is the current DT Profile of it.

Well, the OIH has been in one incredible trend. Our DT entry was excellent but I have taken profits along the way. If you are still long, bravo! Tomorrow are inventory #'s and something I am always aware of. If we do get to the 179 level on OIH, that would probably equate to well over $4./gal. at the gas station!! This is definitely of GREAT concern- need I say more!

Sandy

Hi Sandy!

Good to see you hear again!

Hey, just curious... what are gas prices now in California?
Here in northeast Ohio we are about $2.89 this morning.

Marc