Dynamic Trend Profile - Eu Markets : Occasion And Strategies #2

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fabrizio Wrote:omiss

SPX has "only" 193.37 points down before the possible bounce up.

omiss

Price action unfolded precisely ( no inference this time --))) -191 pts rather than 193, than is the rampage.
Europe acted in a slightly differenty manner than foreseen in the beginning. Than all was according to the book.

Good day

It is a must for any fundmanager , investor, or who is specvulating on markets.

Listen carefully:

You had a phenomenal chance in this wonderfull August, and DT WAS THERE TO HELP YOU DETECTING THE MINIMAL CLUES ( see my 3 previous interventions)
60/40 asset allocation? now you had the chance to :
- harvest your profits (if you were a believer dropping your equities or just supporting your losses insured by options hedging strategies)
- Increase your returns via backspread or any other speculative strat in the down ward move
- Buy swiftly some good Equity either directly (so -so) or via options (perfect since calls were realy cheap)
- And now you should find yourself with an Alpha far beyond any benchamark. Showing you are as good as you supposed to be ( certainly better than any fund ))
What is this stattering north move? I'm not going to tell you, but look at Group Rotation. This time Europe shows more confusion than US. And since EU traders are more "sensitive" than US since they "Depend" by US , the whole story does not sound clear .
Should you take a look to the charts, well you will see that SPX and OEX are both on critical Sensible levels, and Monday Fed news...quite embarassing (for them).

Conclusion: If you rode this confused mini up leg, think about harvesting profits is not evil. 2 month of sideways? They will (already did) all what possible to save their chairs and jobs, but eventually the direction is defined. But.
Life is just a representation . Life is teaching you this everyday; and the "representation" of "we are all happy and there is no problem " must go on
(Hume--> the world as representation+Kant---> very simply epistemological issues...)
So some surprise may be in sight.
Try not to see what YOU like to see or just a Meta-reality.

Good day, or ,better, Week.

Ps: all these interventions and news from central banks obtained just a 108 points rise in SPX from the perfect storm low? Mah.

There was no hope for bulls since 4 :oo am Globex session.

EU reacted as per charts.

Take a look to groups and you'll see that structure now that the time goes by turns out more and more compromised.

But you never know.
SPX is on is way C down. and a regular C (like this movement) could be as long as 2.62 times the lenght of the A ( the prior Down ward Leg)

Always probability, never certainity.

I am obliged to speak about SPX in order to understand or detect the EU indexes Behavior. I am sure that in such a moment the intention to take straight long position on liquid equities is minimal. Name of the game should be hold for a while to see what smart money will decide to do once regrouping.

Neverthless, the time does not play a positive role for bulls. To be little "technical :

Volumes are very small. This tells a lot about the general attitude. The effect is today range trade .
Yesterday's sell off slope was too steep. and again with small volumes.
a nice sensibe level drew the base for a north reaction

It is a quite confused outlook; easier try to push up and down an illiquid market (you can see how technical became during the hollow hours) looking for easy temporary profits
SPX is far below the 50 pct from the July high and just above the 50 pct from the last up correction high. So Weak in the medium term , stronger in the short term.

EU react in the similar way . wait and see .

Few days to the month end and squaring positions. So once Volumes will increase , than the direction wil be clearer.

It is interesting how some Hfunds will post on their sites the july and August NAV.

Useless to post here very confused Charts.

Good day.

As A Confirm To The Concept About Volume: Yesterday, Once Money Started Flow In Either Buyer And Sellers Reacted Giving A Clear Direction Up. NOT A STEADY ONE , THO....

IN EU THE CONFUSION IS TOTAL: SINCE JULY 27 TH DAX IS BOXED within a 7674 / 7325 (2 spikes at 7219) ; EVERY NOW AND THAN INTERESTING DAILY RANGES THOUGH.
IT IS A LONG TIME FORGOTTEN HEAVEN, TRADING DERIVATIVES.

fabrizio Wrote:There was no hope for bulls since 4 :oo am Globex session.

EU reacted as per charts.

Take a look to groups and you'll see that structure now that the time goes by turns out more and more compromised.

But you never know.
SPX is on is way C down. and a regular C (like this movement) could be as long as 2.62 times the lenght of the A ( the prior Down ward Leg)

Always probability, never certainity.

Never call a move too early. Seems like the C is not "on " yet and the B is till there . Has good room up before being negate , in simple case no more than 75% of A . in the irregular no more than 115% of A.

Once more our focus is not on EU but on the main driver: SPX.
I shall not sPend many words on this butif you like , make note.

None knEW exactly how serious WAS the problem . NOW It is serious , PRETTY much. More than ever thought. But no one knows exaCtly how MUCH is the visIble part and the HOW THE submerged.
This leave the "magnitude" to the realm of the hipothesys , rationalized.
- First was just a "margin call " on strat arb : CDO's had "no" serious "bid side" ( circa 30 cents over 1 USD ) and even though the willingness to bid at that level was far away the size of the sellerS side. So , in order to comply with the margin call and put the money upfront , that large bunch of ".........." had no other chances than liquidate other assests easily sellable and "expensive"AT THAT TIME , i.e. financials, triggering then a generalised sell off.(LOOK AT BANKING INDEX DURING OR BEFORE THE THUNDERSTHORM)
- But the "enormous" concerted reaction from all the central banks sounded at the beginning as symbolic ( expecially from these incompetent bunch of usless asynchronous i......il POLITICS from ECB capitaned by the most clecrcky guy scared by the dark (inflation) kid: Trichet:(in omen nomen: in the name the destiny , "tricher" means in French tongue "to cheat" .) But after a while everyone moved concretely . No mith, no symbol to decrypt .Just real ACTIONS AND MONEY and no representation.
- and here they are: finally markets react as SHOULD; every positive news push it up ( with a lovely fantastic VIX back to the high 30 area ( hopefully we will see it at 45, 50 60 ) and any negative will push it down.
- But the BIAS is likely SOUTH (technically) even though just 1 tick did not compromised the whole structure saving the game right on the brink.

Here is it . Very simple . Very clear. Just take a look at the past and HOW 2005 went up, how 2006 went up.

Be skeptical: we do not believe it will "effondre" in just two days. It will take some more , but not so much.

But effondre (melting down) is correct? No is just recomposing the market action towards a normal Price action: Up and down, down and up. Period. No ONLY UP !!
Cycles: asymetricals:bulls cycles takes a time to reach the top and little time to came down. Same for bear cycles .

You will see a good bunch of lay offs ( first thing an investement bank does is simply cut heads, their more expensive cost.)

And here we are. Do not cry. Money comes and goes.

Just take thsi lesson: risk is risk and this is what the bunch of fresh kids did not know , since never lived it, just studied. But its a totally a differnt thing.

Now cames the beauty: ONLY WITH DT YOU CAN MANAGE AN HAIRY SITUATION. And since the most of you - wrongly- are focused on shares, now you will be somehow obliged to learn how to use options either as hedging or just as speculative .

Enjoy the Options intrument5 you have in DT and UNDERSTAND THAT EVERITHING IS INN STRUCTURE AND NOTHING IS GIVEN FOR GRANTED.

Good Luck and stay up. Maybe we are totally wrong and we will see a newal, time max in 3 weeks.

In that case we will be there on the run. Without prejudices and opinions.

Good luck

PS: I do not give you any level: it is a bit long if done properly , I'v no time ;
and most of all , I know you could not care less and wont follow them . You like the prepared meal.
So If you do not give a damm, why should I ? - Smile

We got our fat profits , la moindre gentilesse c'est : j'vous souhaite les memes.

Bye

Buyers wont leave the field so easily. The fight will be hard until the last usefull and available resource political and economical (btw: conceptually, isn't the concerted central banks a "non liberistic market distortion never seen before"?)
- Is there somewhere a phisyc law saying an object in this "world" must always follow a UP linear trajectory?
The bid side is slowly - with a fierce battle- gaining inch by inch day a after day. This week price action is an example. (with the "complicity" gaps up and down. Quite complicated to read (see AAPL)
Financial behaviour has lot to do with physics. So back to point 1.b above

By that time and later I did recveived mails about: "how do you dae to say that 5.25 pct is a good return? we are skilled enough to have 3 times as much as yield operating wit.......NO RISK....." You are an Imbecil and incompetent. Why waste your time in suggesting such a ridiculos return. You better go fishing mr. Fabbrizizzo"

Here is th point. NO RISK

Everyone during this yeras perceived NO risks gainst high yield.
the fault is noit only from istitution but MAINLY from individuals: they were the ONE asking HIGH Yield, and the banks were more tahn happy to " serve them" with apparently no risky instruments.
Keep it simple : and The very simple (non the stochastic one treaty more complex) A Random Walk in wall Street suggests that there is no possible higher return without an Higher risk. Provided that the random walk is there .
We are bit more sophisticated and with some tools we can minimize risks and yet have good returns.
But RISK IS THERE. You cannot eliminate it unless than foir a short period of time but when that period will be over you will be too inloved with the "representaioion " of no risky markets and your ability vs/ strong yield that you will not be availabler to abandon that now...devceiving pattern.
Thanks god the market is so. Dumb vs/ Smart.
Now the RISK HAS BEEN CLEARLY PERCEIVED BY THE MOST BUT THEY WERE NOT USED !!! Even the capped instruments are not sufficient anymore.

So I am certainly an imbecil, but I Risk every day trough derivatives strategies and I want my money AS SECURE AS POSSIBLE. AND AGAIN, 5.25(yearly) on 30 days Fed FUND at ZERO RISK is a hell of money ( indeed if you pour 10K its littlle if you pour 10 Millions start being more interesting.

Risk. Now volatility is reagarded as the Devil: NO gentlemen. Volatility , a vix at 40 is waht make us be profitable.

Good day.

[quote=fabrizio]

Buyers wont leave the field so easily. The fight will be hard until the last usefull and available resource political and economical (btw: conceptually, isn't the concerted central banks a "non liberistic market distortion never seen before"?)
- Is there somewhere a phisyc law saying an object in this "world" must always follow a UP linear trajectory?
The bid side is slowly - with a fierce battle- gaining inch by inch day a after day. This week price action is an example. (with the "complicity" gaps up and down. Quite complicated to read (see AAPL)
Financial behaviour has lot to do with physics. So back to point 1.b above

Conclusion:I know that I do not know . Period . But :talking in terms of pure ODDS , the only things I do strongly - but always skeptically- believe is that if the mid august low will be taken away . Or Just before there, being 50 pct below the mid way from that low and the High is the only empirical recognition of a more than temporary weakness.

But as said previously, the "representation" must go on.And It does.
After all being the reality always skewed, who cares?[/quote]

and amof the representation keeps on going (yesterday)
He can go up, he can go down : who ares? what makes the difference is having it volatile. The rest belongs to the realm of opinions. If you trade YOU AINT GOT AN OPINION.

Good day

Quote:09-07-2007 11:20 PM good Luck and stay up. Maybe we are totally wrong and we will see a new all,
time max in 3 weeks.

USELESS to remark that right after 4 weeks there was a new max.
Now back again on 1500 major floor .
Wonderful market.

Once more, res ipsa loquor.
But: do you believe they will leave their bonuses and chairs without fighting till the last tick? No . So the only 100% safe "effondrement total"(as previously said ) is below 1370 /1350 on Cash.

DT is confirming as well as adressing in the picking and this is fine to anyone.

the upwards corrections since beg November are getting smaller so this means a lot
What goes up must came down

I certainly missed the timing with my put ratio on AAPL (sometimes we overlook too much what is going on in a corporation... OR WE DO NOT BELIEVE WHAT DT IS TELLING US , AMOF FOLLOWING DT WE WOULD NOYT HAVE TAKEN A NOT CLEAR POSITION ) .
No major damages though since what Dax & ES are yielding is far more interesting . Expecting the "event" on Euro south...
Enjoy this wonderful market.

fabrizio Wrote:Once more, res ipsa loquor.
But: do you believe they will leave their bonuses and chairs without fighting till the last tick? No . So the only 100% safe "effondrement total"(as previously said ) is below 1370 /1350 on Cash.

DT is confirming as well as adressing in the picking and this is fine to anyone .

As said. It cxould have gone down , it could have gone up. The only sure things were some levels to confirm a south structure. But men are men and they have to save their clients xmas and their chairs.

So , went up. If you limit your risk you save your ...., since NOTHING IS SURE IN THIS WORLD.

fabrizio Wrote:Once more, res ipsa loquor.
But: do you believe they will leave their bonuses and chairs without fighting till the last tick? No . So the only 100% safe "effondrement total"(as previously said ) is below 1370 /1350 on Cash.

DT is confirming as well as adressing in the picking and this is fine to anyone.

the upwards corrections since beg November are getting smaller so this means a lot
What goes up must came down

I certainly missed the timing with my put ratio on AAPL (sometimes we overlook too much what is going on in a corporation... OR WE DO NOT BELIEVE WHAT DT IS TELLING US , AMOF FOLLOWING DT WE WOULD NOYT HAVE TAKEN A NOT CLEAR POSITION ) .
No major damages though since what Dax & ES are yielding is far more interesting . Expecting the "event" on Euro south...
Enjoy this wonderful market.

Once more behavioural finance aside, market is made of men and of collective movements and "representations". This time the reality representation tìsomeone was triyng to "serve" was stretched too much. And the effondrement total arrived.

Except 9/11 and 1987:

Since the Es derivative first trade never seen a -80 points during non RTH (globex night session).
Since Dax existence as derivative never seen more than 220 points from 8:00 Am cet to 11:00 Cet.
The descent slope is about 90° .
at the dead cat bounce of last week there were still a lot of people believing equities were "discounted" so a good change to go long.
The result is in these monday and tuesday and likely today will be quiter having SPX found a good low and support.
Time is NOT on the bull side.
Hedge your positions , as always suggested.

Following DT the strong signals were 200% clear, so do not blame anyone but yourself if you haven't been able to properly read this UNIQUE tool.

There is time to go long, there is time to go short, there is time to go fishing (J. Livermore)

Good Day.

Stars 5.0
Ri: 1.00
Rrr:3.13
Risk 0.400

Sell Triggered At 12.778 Now Back Up

Tgt 11.528

Can Go To 9.00/8.10

fabrizio Wrote:Stars 5.0
Ri: 1.00
Rrr:3.13
Risk 0.400

Sell Triggered At 12.778 Now Back Up

Tgt 11.528

Can Go To 9.00/8.10

On his way for the 9.00/8.10

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