11-26-2006, 11:03 PM
I do not care about news. PA has its own dynamics and news are generally effecting directions only in short terms and giving increased volatility.
Other is on a susbstatuially NON REGULATED MARKET like FOREX, where the 99.9 % of the rules of the game are dictated by Smart Money with a 9 month transaction magnitude of 370 trillion USD ( if I'm not wrong US GNP is 10 Trillion USD).
The fair level EURO /USD is 1.27 ; the oscillating band I consider is from 1.245 to 1.29.
I consider any stable PA above 1.30-31 as a ringing bell of something going on. AMOF every Technically attempt to stay above has been rejected ( see beg of the year thread on 6e) or capped and supported below.
USA do not like a to weak USD : There are not macro reason for a too weak USD with an inverted curve in IR. Why should the stream of money towards the most secure sovereign debt instruments giving now a zero risk yield 4.99 (now while few weeks before was 5.25) in four weeks funds be diverted suddendly towards a less rewarding, less secure , overpriced EURO or no rewarding YEN? 5% is now the opportunity cost of capital for anyone in the world :the base in CAPM and to evaluate where the large free treasury funds from States and Corporations should be allocated.
Instead we see a battered green back sold for those two currency.
A look to the Credit Default Swaps new bonanza can likely give a partial answer.
Again: in TA terms I did not liked the jump of Euro
As I always repeat , when PA do not convince you go and try to find with your eyes where is the gimmick. On charts and links among them.
PS: this one is the 19th up week on $INDU and we are 4 weeks from end of year . Year end Bonuses are substantially already defined for most big fund managers . They only have to decide how to spend them now.
Other is on a susbstatuially NON REGULATED MARKET like FOREX, where the 99.9 % of the rules of the game are dictated by Smart Money with a 9 month transaction magnitude of 370 trillion USD ( if I'm not wrong US GNP is 10 Trillion USD).
The fair level EURO /USD is 1.27 ; the oscillating band I consider is from 1.245 to 1.29.
I consider any stable PA above 1.30-31 as a ringing bell of something going on. AMOF every Technically attempt to stay above has been rejected ( see beg of the year thread on 6e) or capped and supported below.
USA do not like a to weak USD : There are not macro reason for a too weak USD with an inverted curve in IR. Why should the stream of money towards the most secure sovereign debt instruments giving now a zero risk yield 4.99 (now while few weeks before was 5.25) in four weeks funds be diverted suddendly towards a less rewarding, less secure , overpriced EURO or no rewarding YEN? 5% is now the opportunity cost of capital for anyone in the world :the base in CAPM and to evaluate where the large free treasury funds from States and Corporations should be allocated.
Instead we see a battered green back sold for those two currency.
A look to the Credit Default Swaps new bonanza can likely give a partial answer.
Again: in TA terms I did not liked the jump of Euro
As I always repeat , when PA do not convince you go and try to find with your eyes where is the gimmick. On charts and links among them.
PS: this one is the 19th up week on $INDU and we are 4 weeks from end of year . Year end Bonuses are substantially already defined for most big fund managers . They only have to decide how to spend them now.