Dynamic Trend Profile

Full Version: What is 'Trigger' Price in Matrix and Profile?
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Trigger price in the Matrix and Profile is the level where you should consider entering a trade, if the setup conditions confirm it and you decide to take that trade.

The trigger price is a critical level because receiving a price fill too high or low can cause your Risk/Reward Ratio to go below acceptable levels. The discipline of entering into a transaction at the appropriate price is a necessity in successful trading.
Whereas I fully understand the implication on RRR of entering too late, what about entering before the trigger price is reached. Of course it improves RRR but increases the risk of getting ejected by the stop. How does the model work on this issue and would you advise in such a case to move the stop accordingly?
We do not advise, under normal market conditions, jumping into a trade before it is officially triggered. Part of the trade parameter logic is designed to keep you out of a trade setup in such a way that if that setup still is retracing you will not have a pre-mature entry that later gets stopped out. At some point during a setup the trade logic will drop the entry point more quickly and closer to the current price and that is when you focus more aggressively on that setup.

You can enter a trade at a better price once it has been triggered and re-enters the trading zone.

You also can enter a trade if you are trading using technical analysis to define your support/resistance picture, etc, and then us the DT trade setup to help guide or help confirm your advanced entry trade using our trade parameter to piggy back off in advance. To do this, however, you will need to monitor for 'group rotation' to confirm the trades legitimacy and also manage your trade based on your technical picture.

jblanc Wrote:Whereas I fully understand the implication on RRR of entering too late, what about entering before the trigger price is reached. Of course it improves RRR but increases the risk of getting ejected by the stop. How does the model work on this issue and would you advise in such a case to move the stop accordingly?
Good morning,

What is your doctrine regarding stops strategy:

Would you trail them or not, especially if it is a longer therm deal?

Once the values have changed for a specific deal and the stops are moved farther away from their original values do you advise to adopt the new value or stick to the old one and what if it is he contrary which boils down to the first question?

Is it correct to consider a deal which has disappeared from the respective profile without having reached neither the stop nor its target as cancelled?
What does the doctrine say about that?
Swing Trade Definition- "A trading strategy that seeks to create profits by holding positions for relatively short periods, often one day to one week. This is similar to day trading, but with a slightly longer time horizon."

Dynamic Trend Profile is a swing trading program where we try to catch some form of a pullback or pause phase within an overall trend. DT Profile defines a pullback (profit-taking phase) or pause period (re-energizing trend phase) as some form of a "room-size" buy or sell swing trade setup. DT Profile identifies 11 levels of trends within 3 categories: day-trade (day only trades), swing trades (1day to approximately 2 weeks types of trade durations), and position trades. (1 week to 10 month durations) All 11 room-sizes are essentially "swing trades" within various degrees of trending behavior.

The basic methodological used when trading these swings.... when you have assessed and verified the quality of the DT Profile setup and you determine the RRR and $ risk is acceptable to you, so on and so forth, once you take a trade setup you manage the trade as follows: (1) buy/sell at the trigger price (or better place if it is triggered and then falls below the trigger and you want to buy/sell it cheaper to reduce your risk) and place your stop loss where the program assigns it. (2) When the price moves to your breakeven target (the midpoint or 50% between the buy/sell trigger and the actual target price objective) you cover 1/2 the position and move the original stop loss to the breakeven or entry point. (3) If the price action now falls back to the entry price area you now will be forced to exit the remaining 1/2 of your position still open to a breakeven price minus commission. (4) If, however, the price continues to your original target you exit the 1/2 remaining trade to lock in that profit. To the best of my knowledge that is DT Profile mechanical trading logic strategy. It essentially is how we would manage a normal swing move trade. If the question is how would we manage a trade beyond a target price, particularly if we believe as a trader using our own judgment that this swing move can lead to a bigger trend continuation, and that the current price movement may only be a part of an existing bigger longer-term trend in progress. That is a very good question which I will try to answer in the next post.


jblanc Wrote:What is your doctrine regarding stops strategy:
Would you trail them or not, especially if it is a longer term deal?
Continuing the last post follow-through...

If you as a trader believe the trending behavior of what you are trading has good odds of continuing to trend beyond what your original goal or objective or target price-- particularly if you only took a swing trade within that trend but now want to try and stay in that position some how, some way-- most experience traders would be forced to use some form of a trailing stop strategy to protect that original position or what is still left open.

A "trailing stop" is one technique traders will attempt to manage that position. The "Limit your losses and protect your gains" rule is essentially want a trailing stop is all about.

The problem with a trailing stop is there are different ways to employ them. Some will trail a percentage price movement trailing stop, some will use a price movement trailing stop. There are many variables needed to check out to determine which technique could be most useful for the market you are trying to trade. Volatility can determine how aggressively you trail a stop. Your goals and objectives or next target(s) you think the trade can technically trade to is also important to think about. Some times "Time decay " issues or issues of trading resources available for managing that position can affect what kind of a trailing stop you would employ on that trade management. Diversification issues can affect how we might trail a stop. How much time do you have to focus on that trade. There are many issues that can go into what is the best type of trailing stop logic that goes into trading.

One technique I have used with DT Profile when trying to trade beyond a target is keeping a small percentage open from that original swing trade of up to 20 to 30% of the original trade depending on how much time is left in the DT Timing Box calculation for that trade and how much the DT Profile continues to improve after the original entry.

Here is a previous thread example (http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?t=214) of one kind of way to manage trades beyond targets, or to attempt to carry a portion of a normal swing trade beyond a target when you think it has more trend potential. In this example we are using a manually maintained trailing stop where we are trading a portion of that trade beyond a target using a "pivot point" trailing stop technique. (More details and logic explained in that thread.)

Another trailing stop example is show in this thread (click here to see this one) where we are using a combination of existing room-size trades at that time and managing that position using a trailing stop combination of the higher trade rooms with the lower entry trade room. We manage the original trade the same way here we do a normal swing trade but what we do is try to keep a 20 to 30% open portion of the original position open and later when we got a proper pullback and new trade entry we re-positioned and traded it again and still keeping the original left over position in longer. We got into that trade on the lower room but used the higher room trade logic once we started to exceed the existing trade parameters. Again, some of the details of that example might give you more insights into how we attempted to use a trailing stop in that example. Mostly in this case we managed the trailing stop by using a combination of the technical chart price movement with the DT Profile combination of trades put onto one chart for tracking.

Within a trailing stop you can attempt to use technical tools such as moving average to trail a stop, a Parabolic calculation can be used by some to trail a stop, we can attempt to cross-reference a trade setup with another time frame chart to manage that trailing stop based on technical considerations like pivot point support/resistance issues, and so forth. We can target the group and sector that stock is a part of and if it continues to be a very strong trend supported by the overall group and sector we might us a more conservative wider trailing stop of say 3 to 5 dollars, where we only move the stop on bigger moves as opposed to using an aggressive trailing stop where we want to lock in a profit no matter what and if the trend quickly drops we have a tighter trailing stop to preserve that profit. We can use combinations of trailing stops where 1/2 a position we trail a very tight trailing stop and the other 1/2 of an existing open position we trail a less aggressive trailing stop to where we are willing to stay in a trade longer and are willing to give up some profits to do so. These are some ideas how trailing stops can be employed with trading in general, with DT Profile trades in particular. Again, you scan scroll through the previous older threads and find other examples of how we might trail a stop outside of the normal DT swing trade concept.

I will try to find some more examples, or use some of the recent/current trades in progress that I posted back in February ideas how we can still stay in some of them despite the fact many have run out of their particular room sized defined trade parameters. All this would require a more skilled trader background, and a technical analysis background to be most effective.

There is a very large thread titled "Interesting Setups to look at today" (http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthread.php?t=167) Some show how we combined cross-referenced time frames to use technical analysis support/resistance information with a higher room-sized trade setup such as a PA or PB type room. You'd have to scroll back a ways to find those examples because we haven't had a market the past 5 months that has given us many of these types of setups. We currently have been finding some of these techniques have been working well with downtrending groups/sectors such as financial, housing, retail, etc, types of down trending markets that have been going on since last year. Something like this BID trade shows a trade where I traded beyond a target. and then scaled in http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showpost....tcount=299. Here is a Google example. (original GOOG)
Anyways, just scroll back in that "Interesting Setups" thread and you should be able to find more examples of how we attempted to trade beyond a target at that time.

If time permits I will try to go through some recent Feb/March examples to see if that can help some more..... and will post here as soon as I can get some free time to do so....

One more example is to look at a contrarian trade I took and posted updates in Goodyear (click here to see GT example)... If you click on the various links involved in that setup it should show the later new trending action how we tried to keep trading this original entry beyond the original target... Later GT newer trade setup... This trade is more a technical analysis type of trade where we used more Group Rotation to support it as a more viable idea once the buy rotation shows up in a more meaningful way.

To answer your other part of the question I usually try to stay with the original setting as much as possible for managing that trade, but if later ideas can be combined with the original I will attempt to use them in managing whatever is left over of the original trade that was attempted to stay beyond a target.

To answer that last part, it depends. If you get into a new trade and it does not develop totally as defined in the trading parameter and the time box issues in managing that trade, we might just scratch the trade and move on the a later setup. We have been known to leave a very small portion of that trade opened if there still is time left on the original timing boxes used for that setup. We normally do not take a trade or jump in it after it gets beyond the 1st kickout phase box but we may try to incorporate that trade parameter into a later trade setup, particularly if that setup is very similar and at the same price parameter just now a more complex correction say, for example.

jblanc Wrote:What is your doctrine regarding stops strategy:

Would you trail them or not, especially if it is a longer therm deal?

Once the values have changed for a specific deal and the stops are moved farther away from their original values do you advise to adopt the new value or stick to the old one and what if it is he contrary which boils down to the first question?

Is it correct to consider a deal which has disappeared from the respective profile without having reached neither the stop nor its target as cancelled?
Normally if we in the 1st entry phase timing box, and we have done our total due diligence to qualify and setup that trade, and the risk/reward is acceptable to us, we would be concerned that the trade setup is vulnerable to more of a pullback. Under this scenario I will consider scratching the trade if it appears to be gaining more risk to the setup. We would review the totally trade setup once again to make sure the overall trade integrity has not changed too much to show risk returning that now makes the trade not worth it at that time. Another thing that is more an observation is when we have a trend that has extended itself for quite a long period of time without any type of correction other than a few days or a few data bars, we factor into that new setup greater risk no matter how good a quality the setup is, particularly if the overall market or the group and sector that stock is a part of is not showing very good trending support to the setup. It could be a sign that a bigger group/sector/overall market correction or bigger profit-taking phase is more possible in the near term so we have to factor that into our judgment as well under those market conditions. Anytime we see an asterisk show up we have to respect the fact we need to factor in more caution into that current setup and it would require greater technical analysis to improve our ability to effectively trade that setup as it is continues to develop. Often times what a returning * could be suggesting is a possible complex correction is developing. As long as the price movement is not too much we can sometimes work though it but too much price movement means we may want to bail on it and reposition later if that is what it takes to work through what is developing as a complex correction. I had to do that today with a very small SID trade I took because it changed back into an * and the chart pattern is now suggesting a complex correction and a gap covering attempt is now more possible. I will try to com back into this stock at a later date, at a lower price once I can get a better technical setup and DT Profile PA room setup.

We would refer you back to the help menu information located at this link for a little more details... http://www.dynamictrend.com/webhelp/index.html

jblanc Wrote:What does the doctrine say about that? (Trigger price turning back to *)
Last month there was an SD and PA Short setup in RJF. This is an example where the normal swing trade went well, dropped quickly to the target with no internal rally once triggered. When it hit the target notice how it stayed below the breakeven target location. This would be a good example were one could use a trailing stop to try and stay short at least 20 to 30% of the original trade. You could use various combinations of technical tools to help you determine where to locate the trailing stop. Because this stock is moving in a normal price range you could trail a slow dropping trailing stop using something like placing a stop slightly above say a 10-period MA, or use a Regression Trend Channeling technique, possibly a Bollinger Band tool or some sort of a Parabolic calculation where the setting is not picked off by any pivot points on the decline.
Some more posts recent setups will be posted here... http://forums.dynamictrend.com/showthrea...2#post4042
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